Russian troops appear to be expecting a Ukrainian offensive and are therefore digging in heavily, Hammelburg notes. Especially since the Americans, in turn, have given some kind of guarantee to help Ukraine in the offensive, “and beyond,” he says. “But Biden is getting more and more signals from his own staff that a possible bankruptcy should be considered.”
“Biden is getting more and more signals that a possible bankruptcy needs to be considered”
And it must be, because support for Ukraine – which US President Joe Biden has so far received – in the US Congress is in danger of collapsing, according to Hammelburg. “Especially on the Republican side,” he says. “So if the offensive fails, Biden’s advisers fear there will be a significant backlash in the House of Representatives.”
Big circles
If the Americans reduce or even withdraw their unconditional support, this will also have direct consequences on the attitude of European countries, Hammelburg thinks. “If they find that America is starting to back down, then European countries will think more about ceasefire negotiations, rather than arms deliveries,” she continues. “So it could have huge consequences.”
Provided that the offensive really comes. According to Hammelburg, there is a possibility that Ukraine is engaged in a diversionary tactic. The Ukrainian crossing of the Djnepr River near Kherson may just be a targeted move to mislead the Russians. “All messages should be seen in the context of the strategy,” he says. “In a war, communication is part of that, and so is what you leak.” Therefore, the possibly contrived gloomy image of Americans could be a tactic.