Although various media reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnipro River, it is unclear whether this is the start of the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive. So says defense specialist and analyst Patrick Bolder of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague. “Obviously everyone is watching it, but it’s going to be accompanied by a lot of deception.”
Not only will Kiev obviously never say where the counter-offensive will start, but Bolder finds the place for a counter-attack difficult. The bridges have been blown up, so getting supplies across the river is difficult. Also, the bridgehead is too small for his liking. “I think they’re still mostly on the somewhat swampy meadows of the river and across.”
Bridgehead
Bolder stresses that a beachhead must be at least 30 to 40 kilometers deep to prevent the concentration of manpower and resources brought across the river from being within reach of Russian artillery. Bolder therefore gets the impression that it is a diversionary maneuver and “that they are trying to lure Russian troops there and leave a vacuum somewhere else for the Ukrainians to take advantage of”.
“Now there is a form of air denial”
Meanwhile, the Russians dropped another barrage of rockets on Ukrainian cities last night. According to Bolder, this could be a direct result of the leaked Pentagon Papers. “It’s been a long time since they’ve actually launched rockets. We also saw in those leaked reports (…) that Ukraine is in danger of running out of air defense assets.’ According to Bolder, Russia wants Ukraine to run out of supplies even faster so the Russians can bring their air power to bear.
denial of air
There is something of a stalemate in Ukrainian airspace: neither side has air superiority and neither side dares to do much for fear of losing fighter planes. “Now there is a form of air denial: one denies the other the use of airspace, but neither one really has air superiority.” The Russians would like to have more air superiority now that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is imminent.
Recruitment campaign
Meanwhile, the Kremlin intensifies its army recruitment campaign. the campaign is controversial and appeals to the masculinity and patriotism of Russian boys. It’s unclear whether the campaign will have an effect and actually produce those 400,000 new recruits. When the first mobilization was announced in September 2022, hundreds of thousands of Russian boys and men fled abroad.
According to Bolder, the appeal to patriotism will make no difference: those who were patriotic have already denounced themselves at an earlier stage. “But 400,000 men? It seems very strong to me that this will be successful, but Putin is actually doing it to see if he can strengthen the army without going into a subsequent mobilization. Because he also knows that the next mobilization will lead to a lot of resistance and even more brain drain.’
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Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
