It seems that the summit between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin has yielded few results satisfactory for both sides. In fact, strong differences of opinion are beginning to emerge between China and Russia on essential points, such as the use of nuclear weapons. For example, through spokesman Mao Ning, Beijing explicitly declares its opposition to the Russian use of nuclear weapons. “So it can only be said that Xi is not very happy with what is happening here,” says former MP and podcast creator Arend Jan Boekstijn.
And this is also an explanation for the failure of the diplomatic part of Xi’s visit, thinks De Wijk. “Won’t you immediately announce that nuclear weapons will be placed in Belarus when Xi says goodbye?”
“So it can only be said that Xi is not very happy with what is happening here”
Ukrainian tiredness
Partly with Xi’s 12-point plan, China wanted to position itself as a peacemaker. And according to Boekestijn and De Wijk, given the very poor results at the front, Putin has every reason to seize that offer with both hands. That he hasn’t done so is therefore remarkable, on the other hand, according to Boekestijn, he seems to be counting on the West to “get tired of Ukraine” and “that Western support will diminish in the long run”.
Placing nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus is a slap in the face for Xi, think Boekestijn and De Wijk. China is already angry. In reality, Putin is very careless. He needs Chinese support so much, and then he starts insulting that man. He draws his plan of him.’
Kaliningrad
Putin’s nuclear missile shuffle also leads the West to persist in its support for Ukraine. However, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus could lead to a dangerous escalation. Even if it’s not really necessary: in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is completely surrounded by NATO territory, there are already Iskander missiles that can carry a nuclear warhead and have a range of 400 to 500 kilometers.
Listen to the Boekestijn and De Wijk podcast here
“Most goals in Europe can be reached from Kaliningrad,” says De Wijk. According to the professor, Putin is doing this to scare Europe, to blackmail Ukraine and to gain further control over Belarus. According to Boekestijn, this could make Belarusian President Lukashenko’s position even more unstable: “It will only strengthen the opposition in their wishes. It may just fall apart.’
“So you don’t know what will happen if such an Iskander flies at you. Is it a nuclear weapon or a conventional weapon?’
According to De Wijk, the placement is therefore risky because the Iskanders are allegedly “double-capable”: the missile can carry both sectarian and nuclear weapons. “So you don’t know what will happen if such an Iskander flies at you. Is there a nuclear weapon or a conventional weapon? This is a really big deal, it’s damn connected. And this can have enormous consequences for the stability of the crisis.’
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