The arms supply is part of a “slow rise in temperature” between the two countries, says Sense Hofstede, a researcher on Sino-Western diplomatic relations at the Clingendael Institute. “You will see that China sends planes to Taiwan again in response, and that Taiwan then receives new weapons.” In this way the tension becomes more and more threatening.
People’s Congress
The National People’s Congress is taking place in China this weekend, the question is whether there will be a response to the new supply of weapons from the United States. “That congress has been prepared in detail in advance, so nothing surprising will emerge.” Here, too, the gradual increase in temperature will emerge again.
“The major consequences of this arms delivery will probably not materialize, but the fire will certainly flare up again.”
Escalation
How realistic is the possibility that the situation will escalate in the short term? According to Hofstede, this possibility is very small in the short term: ‘This process is very gradual and does not involve any major shocks. We don’t need to worry until China introduces lockdowns.”