Kiev can continue to expect drone strikes, says defense analyst Patrick Bolder of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague. Kiev was attacked again last night with Iranian drones, while Russia was thought to have no more. “The fact that drones are now suddenly available again would mean that they have been delivered again.”
According to Bolder, the Russians are using drones to disable and degrade Ukraine’s air defenses. Bolder doesn’t know where these drones came from, but according to him the Russians had plans to “build 6,000 of those drones under license.” “Maybe they found spare parts wired together.”
Russia continues to increase pressure on the Ukrainian air defenses so that the Russian air force will soon be less affected and can help ground troops. However, the Russian air force suffered a major blow last weekend when a radar plane was destroyed in Belarus, Russia’s ally and base. “A major coup,” says Bolder.
Sabotaging Belarus
The aircraft in question is an A50 Mainstay, the Russian counterpart of AWAC, capable of monitoring when and where the Ukrainian Air Force takes off and then communicating this to Russian air defense and air superiority aircraft. Sabotage is risky, Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko has repeatedly said that a Ukrainian attack on Belarus could prompt him to invade Ukraine. Bolder, however, thinks more of a Belarusian partisan action than a drone strike from Ukraine.
Meanwhile, it appears that the eastern Ukrainian city of Bachmut is about to fall. Bolder calls it a Pyrrhic Victory because so many people and equipment died. “They may have taken it, the strategic importance is not that great and it cost them a huge amount of people and resources.”
“It cost the Russians a lot of time and a lot of troops, so they can’t go on the offensive at other points. So, in that regard, it might be worth Ukraine to hold out that long.”
Chinese chicanes
Last Friday, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi was in Moscow, China unveiled a twelve-point “peace plan” and rumors grew that Beijing would supply arms to Russia. “We’ve all seen that plan, it only contains really good stuff, no one can argue with that.”
“So if Zelensky is smart, he will invite those Chinese too. And then the Chinese have to choose ham or egg. Because then it is clear; a sovereign country, is Ukraine as it was before 2014 or before February 2022? And does the Russian sovereign country include the four provinces?’ If China agrees with the Russian story, “then you can shoot down the whole plan immediately, then it can’t be taken seriously anymore.”
Follow developments here in our live blog
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
