Earlier, the Ukrainian military also said that Russia was preparing to launch a false flaglaunch an attack. “The Kremlin could be false flagattack, to force Belarus into war with Ukraine. This follows Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s statement that Belarus will only join the war if it is attacked by Ukraine, writes ISW.
The ISW itself says it is “highly unlikely” that Russia or Belarus will launch an attack on northern Ukraine, “although Russia is trying to force Lukashenko’s hand or blame Ukraine for spreading war to undermine the support of Kiev”.
The ISW notes that if a false flagan operation is underway in northern Ukraine, which could also force Ukraine to send troops to the area. This could weaken defenses in eastern Ukraine.
Moldova is also under pressure
The ISW also notes that the Kremlin is trying to develop a situation where a false flagoperation in Moldova can be performed. This should take place in the Transnistria region, which borders Ukraine and has declared independence. There are already Russian Army units in the area. Russia’s Defense Ministry said earlier this week that Ukraine has one false flagoperation to perform. Moldova denies it and fears that Russia wants to carry out an attack on Moldova.