“There is some influence in Central Asia that is waning,” says Van der Togt. For example, Kazakh President Kassim-Jomart Tokayev has refused to acknowledge the outcome of Russia’s controversial referendum in Ukraine, in which Donetsk and Luhans, among others, “chose” to join Russia. The Kazakh Foreign Ministry then stated that the “territorial integrity” and “sovereignty” of the countries must be respected.
A setback for Putin, especially after helping the Kazakh president with troops in early 2022 when he put down an uprising in his country. According to the former diplomat, China is “eagerly” diving into the void left by the Russians, not only financially and economically, but also in terms of security. “For example, there is a Chinese base in Tajikistan.”
Silk Road in danger
Kazakhstan has also become much more important to China in the context of the BRI, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. That economic aorta had a northern branch that ran through Russia and Ukraine and is now completely closed due to the fighting. This makes the southern branch through Central Asia vital to China’s overland trade with Europe. However, it is not the case that China is taking over from Russia and influencing one-on-one. For Kazakhs it is Kazakhstan first, he thinks. “People don’t want to trade one older brother for another.”
It should be noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping has already publicly stressed on several occasions that he guarantees the territorial integrity of Kazakhstan, a clear warning to Putin if he has any ambitions in this regard.
Other countries in the region will also have room because Russia needs to focus on the war in Ukraine, says Van der Togt. According to the former diplomat, the Russian image in those countries is eroding, but the Kremlin doesn’t care much. ‘Russia’s image in those countries is taking a huge dent, none of those countries have a conflict with Ukraine or Ukrainians. On the contrary. That prestige will suffer, but if the Kremlin cares, no, it won’t care.’
Listen to the full conversation with Tony van der Togt in BNR Perestrojkast here