‘It might be true, the Russians are starting their offensive and then you have to attack. And the attacker always suffers more losses than the defence,’ says De Kruif. According to the former commander, an offensive has three phases and now we are in the second: breaking through enemy lines. “That’s where we are now, in Bachmut and Luhansk. Bachmut is of little value, I think most of the units are north of Luhansk.’
Is this the long-awaited offensive? ‘They certainly won’t start one day with drums and trumpets, it will take time. We have seen the first phase, the preparatory logistics and the recruitment of troops. They finished the construction one shot ahead of the Ukrainian forces. There is also enormous political pressure on the new commander Gerasimov.’
Meanwhile, Ukraine still lacks fighter jets to counter the Russian ground offensive and support its own ground operations. Poland is now not entirely sure that it can supply Kiev’s F-16s. According to De Kruif, it is still a political no-go. “You can’t even fly those boxes, you gotta have guns.”
One possibility is a so-called “fill-in option”, under which the MIG-29s of the Eastern European allies are transferred to Ukraine.