For some time, intelligence services and military analysts have been betting on a new offensive, which could take place around the first anniversary of the war or perhaps a little later in the spring. According to Hammelburg, the Russian military mainly has logistical problems. And this is familiar territory. “If you look through Russian military history, you’ll see that it’s always been a problem.” For example, in the Battle of Stalingrad, several Russian soldiers would have had only one rifle, Hammelburg says. ‘This battle lasted 200 days and was a turning point in WWII. Hundreds of thousands of people died in the process.’
The Battle of Stalingrad was commemorated last week in the city of Volgograd. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, his country is once again threatened by German tanks, citing the supply of German Leopard tanks to Ukraine and the Soviet Union’s gains over Nazi Germany’s army in 1943.
According to Hammelburg, the Russians know very well how to deal with shortages. “And they have more than enough people, more than Ukraine.” The problem for the Russians is how to get a real military force on the ground, including ammunition and supplies, she thinks. “British Secret Service says this problem is very visible.”
Empty treasure
Meanwhile, the European Commission is discussing a tenth package of sanctions against Russia. Where the sanctions so far appear to have no effect, the Russian finance minister has now said that the state treasury is almost empty. This has to do with the country’s communist past. “This stipulated that national debt was prohibited,” says Hammelburg. Russia is one of the few countries in the world that has no debt but a surplus. Only that money is parked in banks and financial institutions in the West, and now they can’t get to it.’
Russia’s deficit has ballooned to 25 billion euros, Belgium has indicated that more than 50 billion euros of Russian money has now been frozen. “This will be a serious problem for the Russians,” says Hammelburg, “they will not starve and they will be able to solve it themselves. But the fact that Russia is making it up also has to do with accountability to the IMF.’ Every country that is a member of the International Monetary Fund must report its financial problems in time.
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