If Zelensky’s wish comes true, Ukraine will have more opportunities for an offensive. And according to Wijninga there are risks associated with this. “With an F-16 you can, so to speak, go to Moscow and burn that city to the ground. This means that because you can move so freely with an aircraft, you run the risk of the war escalating deep inside Russia. This is obviously what the West wants to prevent.’
Airspace
Airspace can play an important role in the course of warfare. ‘Ukraine really doesn’t have an air force to write home about: too few and very outdated. Have used it sparingly over the last few months. They lack an air weapon that can impose dominance on the battlefield, so they have freedom of movement there and can support ground troops in combat,’ says Wijninga.
It’s not the first time Zelensky has asked for air guns. ‘Last year, Poland’s delivery of aircraft was avoided, we thought it was too early. It was now in line with the expectation that if they dragged those tanks in, the next wish would be granted,’ says Wijninga.
Nuclear War
Putin has already threatened to use nuclear weapons if he thinks the West is going too far. However, Wijninga does not expect it to come to that, even if he is wary. You can never rule it out entirely. But one thing’s for sure: if he pushes that button, it’s the end of the story. Then it finally collapses, leaving Moscow in a smoking mess. His main motivation is the survival of his regime, so it is so against his self-interest to take that step that it is very unlikely.’