According to Peter Ho, professor of Chinese economics and development at the London School of Economics, among others, a surge of corona infections in rural areas can cause big problems. “The capacity to help in the countryside is very low, which means that a large wave of infections can mean that little help can be offered.”
However, the Chinese New Year also has positive sides for the economy. “There is a huge wave of consumption going on, because the zero-covid policy has been abolished and citizens want to make and buy all sorts of things,” Ho says. The professor sees that buying behavior has a positive effect on the stock markets.
The worst case
“If the wave of infection cannot be contained properly, it will have serious consequences for the global economy,” Ho thinks. However, according to him, it remains to be seen how many people actually move to their native village in the countryside. “How many people eventually went home, and what consequences this will have, we will see in the coming days,” said the Chinese economics professor.