Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida visited US President Joe Biden. On the agenda: the threats from Russia, China and North Korea and the doubling of the Japanese defense budget. Still on the agenda, but less explicitly stated: the export of Japanese chip technology to China, America’s arch-rival. “My impression is that Kishida let himself be blocked by Biden to continue pursuing a tough policy, so semiconductors from Japan to China, that’s where the brakes are applied.”
And the Rutte-Hoekstra duo are getting the same message today, Hammelburg thinks. “This is how the ASML story will end, I don’t think we have a happy day ahead of us.” Biden wants to hear from the Netherlands that policy towards China must be uniform throughout the Western bloc. This means that the country must be prevented from developing chips and chip machines. This problem has been going on for some time, maybe there is some sort of compromise, but I really doubt it.’
Escalation
Conversations in the Oval Office will no doubt also include the war in Ukraine and Western arms supplies. These have entered a new phase now that British Prime Minister Sunak has agreed to supply a squadron of Challenger tanks, which, according to Hammelburg, are heavy weapons of the highest quality, but nowhere near the quantity Ukraine needs. However, the importance of the British action cannot easily be underestimated, it was the first Western delivery of truly heavy weapons.
The British are the first sheep over the dam, and while France will also supply the tanks, all eyes are on Germany: when Berlin delivers Leopard 2 tanks and when Scholz gives other countries the green light for tanks Leopard 2 (which are usually on loan from the Bundeswehr) to Ukraine? This Friday, countries materially supporting Ukraine will hold consultations in Ramstein, Germany, and Germany is expected to decide on handover and authorization.
Personal defence
According to Hammelburg, this is not a purely political decision: «Germany has only 250. During the Cold War, there were still 4,000. They themselves are in desperate need, and there is a lot of shelter in Germany.” While the Americans also have heavy Abraham tanks, Hammelburg doesn’t think they will be delivered. “Poland has German tanks and wants to supply them, and the Netherlands have also said so. But they come from Germany, so permission from Berlin is needed.”
Production capacity
What, according to Hammelburg, plays into any considerations for arms supply: how much is available and how much must remain domestic to still defend one’s country? ‘You always have to take into account an unexpected conflict of a different nature where you have to defend your country. There is now a British decision, which is a crowbar. The rest will have to follow.”
And once that step is taken, the next bump will come; the production problem. The German tank maker says it will take until 2024 before any deliveries can be made. Everyone now expects a winter offensive and then you really need it, so they’re not there yet. It really is a puzzle.’
Russian mass mobilization
Meanwhile, the news is circulating that the Russians are mobilizing half a million people. Hammelburg doubts the authenticity of those messages. ‘The country has over a million reservists, so it could be done alone. I have yet to actually see it happen. Russia itself says it has summoned three hundred thousand, not all of them yet deployed and some still in the training phase. Half have been used. It’s impossible to verify if any part of this story is correct, it’s also a frame, we don’t know.’
What we do know, then, is that the Kremlin is clearly preparing for a major offensive across the board. It is unclear whether they will do it with more missiles, air forces and ground troops, but that is why Ukraine is asking for weapons and tanks.”
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