In Germany, economic data for 2022 is presented today by Destatis, the German equivalent of Statistics Netherlands. And the numbers don’t bode well for next year. Troubles with Russia and the war in Ukraine look set to be a difficult year. The German correspondent Derk Marseille also sees it.
“A slight growth of 0.5 to 1.5 percent was expected in recent years,” he says. ‘But estimates for next year range from a contraction of 0.3 to 3%. There is a big difference between them, but it will still shrink. It could therefore fall on a softer bed if things look better with last year’s growth. We must therefore also add this year’s figures, and the Germans are waiting for it».
recession
The contraction also means that Germany will officially enter a recession, which will have far-reaching consequences for the Dutch economy. According to Marseille, if Germany sees a drop in domestic demand, this will automatically cause a contraction of the Dutch sales market in Germany. “Many things are changing in the world. Starting with the Russian aggression in Ukraine, which pushed Germany into war».
A war that demands more and more from Germany, underlines Marseilles. “They are sending heavier and heavier weapons,” he says. “Furthermore, Russian gas has disappeared from the German energy mix, the geopolitical situation has changed and even China is showing lower economic growth than in recent years.”
tax
According to Marseilles, the German government seems to be anticipating the deterioration of the economic situation in part. “Economy and Climate Minister Habeck is already introducing some fiscal measures to better prepare Germany for this contraction,” Marseille continues. «For example, being able to cancel the losses on the annual accounts, spread over several years. This means that investments can be maintained, because transformations are underway in all sectors and need to be financed.’
Marseille also believes that the lack of growth will further stoke fears of more cuts. ‘That there will only be mergers and acquisitions, and consequently further cuts. And that’s what Germany wants to prevent.”
Source: BNR
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