The epidemic in China is estimated to have passed the ‘first peak’

China faced the largest single-country spread in history after Covid-19 restrictions were abruptly lifted early last month.

While cases in the country have risen so high that no records can be kept, the number of daily cases is forecast to have exceeded millions.

Infections in the country are forecast to peak at different times in different regions and follow big cities into rural areas.

Statements from states indicate that the spread in rural areas is faster than expected, although it is not expressed in official figures.

An estimated 89 percent of the population is infected with viruses in HINAN

While an estimated 89 percent of the population is infected with the virus in Hnan province, with a population of 100 million in central parts of China, the number of patients admitted to clinics has been reported to have continuously decreased. since December 19.

Kan Çüençing, director of the Hnan Health Commission, said the epidemic wave peaked in the province, where about half of the population lives in rural areas, and they expect the number of new infections to remain low until the end of the month.

Kan noted that although the number of cases decreased, they were concerned about the increase in the number of seriously ill patients.

Health officials in the eastern provinces of Ciciang with 57 million people and Ciangsu with 80 million people also reported that they fell behind the peak in the first wave of cases.

Health officials from both states stressed the importance of focusing on emergency care and treatment services at this stage and access to antiviral drugs for people at risk.

In the western part of the country, in Sichuan province with a population of 81 million, the infection rate is estimated to be over 80 percent. Tang Shuefing, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told state television CCTV that a critical phase has been entered in preventing serious diseases and reducing casualties.

SPRING HOLIDAY MAY CAUSE NEW WAVE OF EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCE

It is feared that the virus will spread to a wider area, sparking a new wave of epidemics in rural areas, with migrants traveling from big cities to the countryside to visit their hometowns during the Spring Festival holidays, which It is the traditional Chinese New Year. celebration.

According to the model developed by the London-based health data analytics and services company Airfinity, using data collected from provinces in China, it is estimated that there will be two waves in the epidemic.

The first wave, which is expected to drive the rise in the case of epidemics in the capital Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong province, is expected to peak in mid-January 2023, and the second wave, which is expected to occurs with the The spread of cases in the provinces after the Chinese New Year holiday is expected to peak in early March 2023. The number of daily cases is expected to rise to 3.7 million in the first wave and up to 4.2 million in the second wave. (AA)