At the same time, the Russian president slightly changes his rhetoric. “By saying this war was necessary because the integrity of Russia was in danger, he is preparing public opinion for a long war that will cost more.” The recent attacks on the country had already been warned by Ukrainian President Zelensky. “Russia will continue to leave people out in the cold,” Bolder says.
Ukrainians are concerned about further mobilization in Russia, which Bolder does not rule out. “300,000 men were mobilized in the autumn, half of whom were sent to the front. The other half fell behind. In addition, 100,000 Russian conscripts were recalled in November. They are all in training and this team, more than 200,000 soldiers, can be sent to Ukraine in the spring.’
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It’s hard to say what that longer-lasting war will look like. ‘A lot depends on the weather, next week it will be marshy and muddy, despite a light frost, the terrain will become difficult for tanks and armored personnel carriers to pass. Those cars then have to drive on the road and that is military suicide. Not much will change in the coming week, the drone strikes will continue.’
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Surprisingly, the number of artillery shells from the Russian side is decreasing, which could be due to a shortage of supplies or that Russia could be saving ammunition for a large-scale offensive at a later date. “It’s hard to tell,” thinks Bolder. “But those supplies are a problem for both sides, how much does Russia still have and how much does Ukraine get from the west?”
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