Ukraine expects Russia to launch a new offensive in the new year. This was stated by Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov in an interview with The Guardian. According to Ukraine, Russia is training an additional 200,000 soldiers, in addition to the 300,000 previously mobilized reservists. “Ukrainians fear that the Russians will launch a new offensive,” says strategy analyst Patrick Bolder of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague.
In February, those newly trained troops would be deployed to take Kiev. According to Bolder, the Russians had previously mobilized 300,000 men, half of whom were sent to the front. The other 150,000 are now in training, joined by a wave of 130,000 conscripts in November. “Now they are all being trained, in February/March they will be trained properly.” According to Bolder, Russia says a Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming to prepare minds at home for a new wave of mobilisation.
Keep fighting
Even though the ground has not yet frozen enough to unleash a major war of mobility, according to Bolder there is really hard fighting on the various fronts, especially in Donetsk. According to Ukraine, the Russians lose between 500 and 600 soldiers every day. “It’s not maneuver warfare, but a lot of artillery and a lot of bombing.” Bolder thinks the Ukrainian strategy is to threaten the land link between Russia and Crimea. Hence the shelling of Melitopol. “I think it’s a successful strategy.”
Bloody War
Meanwhile, the American business magazine Forbes has calculated that Ukraine has already spent 100 billion and Russia 77 billion on the war. When will the Russian treasury be finally empty? Especially now that new sanctions have been announced and oil purchases from China and India are also declining? Bolder thinks the oligarchs will have to bleed and that this will lead to less and less support from those congs for Putin. “It will be exciting. To what extent will those in power around Putin continue to support him? If they see they are going to lose, they go for the eggs for their money.’
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Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
