While the British Defense Ministry calls it “very unlikely” that Russian troops will make any headway in the coming months, defense specialist Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague believes Ukraine is preparing to keep the Russians under constant pressure.
He doesn’t use the word ‘offensive’ yet, but he certainly thinks the Ukrainians are preparing. “I expect they will try to keep the pressure on the Russians,” he says. ‘The Russians will use the winter mainly to strengthen themselves in terms of people and equipment. They are still training recruits that are slowly becoming available, and the less you wage war in the winter, the more time you can spend training those recruits and equipping them with the right equipment.
And for this very reason, Wijninga suspects that Ukraine is keeping up the pressure. “They obviously want to disrupt the process as much as possible, so I expect they’ll keep up the pressure,” he continues. “It remains to be seen whether this will result in a major offensive, or whether it will be a constant sting that will not give the Russians time to recover.”
2 billion euros
It was also announced today that another two billion euros will be put into the European Union’s ‘pot’ for Ukraine. Money that, according to Wijninga, will be used for this, among other things. “European countries can draw on this when making arms deliveries to Ukraine,” he says. “And that petered out pretty quickly. The extra two billion is very welcome, so that European countries can continue to support Ukraine this winter.’
‘well prepared’
According to Wijninga, Ukraine is better prepared for winter than the Russians. “They will suffer more from the cold,” says Wijninga of the Russians. “Ukrainians are well equipped; the personal equipment is good and the clothes are warm. They have several heat sources in the front, so in this respect they will better resist the effects of the cold. But if you want to keep pressure on the Russian defensive lines and formations, you have to keep shooting at them. And that requires rockets and artillery shells. And they will be using it a lot in the coming months.’
Source: BNR
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