And then Deen talks not only about Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus, but also about the countries of the South Caucasus and the republics of Central Asia, including Kazakhstan. Putin tries to limit this loss of influence in various ways: by military force or by energy blackmail (after all, many neighboring countries depend on Russian electricity or Russian gas).
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constant factor
Deen warns that it is a mistake to attribute this ‘Great Russian ambition’ solely to Putin’s vanity: ‘In fact, this is a constant in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. Russia has few natural borders and is always afraid of invasions from outside.”
The researcher quotes Tsarina Catherine the Great as saying that the only way Russia can protect its borders is by expanding them. “Russia has a natural tendency to have buffer states around it. That includes the Caucasus, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Central Asia, it’s part of the way Russia looks at the world.’
Unstable ring
According to Deen, Putin, and before him Yeltsin, uses those so-called ‘frozen conflicts’ (Deen himself prefers to speak of frozen conflicts) as a ring of instability around Russia. “This is why we are reluctant to include those countries in the EU and NATO, so that it keeps some sort of gray area around it.” For Ukraine there is something else: this has an almost emotional, nationalistic and symbolic value for the Kremlin extremists: ‘Putin wants more than a buffer state, he wants control of the whole country’.
Two scenarios
When asked, Deen sketches two possible scenarios for the course of the war. The first scenario is where Russia is heading in the near term: a stalemate because Russia has dug deep. “So the question is to what extent the West is willing to supply Ukrainians with weapon systems to break that stalemate.” In short: Russia is aiming for a stalled conflict with an accompanying negotiation process.
The second scenario is for the Ukrainians to keep fighting. According to Deen, a new group of Ukrainian soldiers will arrive, also from the United Kingdom, trained for offensive operations. “I think we will see another major Ukrainian offensive this winter or spring.” By doing so, the Ukrainians would be sabotaging the Russians’ favorite scenario.
Right or left: Putin’s regime has tied its fate to this war. According to Deen, it’s therefore existential: ‘they’re less likely to stop it. I think it’s not over yet. In the long run, this will lead to instability in Russia. It’s just hard to estimate how long that term is.’
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