Last month, a new pattern emerged along the country’s southern border: The number of migrant apprehensions at the Texas border fell in January compared to the same month a year ago. At the same time, similar arrests occurred year after year at entry points in California and Arizona.

Experts say a combination of factors are likely driving this shift, which has led to several thousand migrants entering California every week as they await court hearings.

asylum applications or deportation immigration

procedure.

Increased enforcement efforts by the governments of Mexico, Panama and Colombia, and increased violence by cartels on the Mexican side of the Texas border, have likely slowed expected migration to that state.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s restrictive new immigration policies, including installing razor wire along some parts of the border and a new state law that

takes could take

effect next month, could also play a role.

“If something is changing so quickly, it’s either word of mouth among migrants, or a change in smuggling patterns, or both,” said Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group .

He said some migrants

and smugglers

may already be changing their routes in anticipation of Texas law, which would authorize local police to charge migrants with illegal entry and re-entry, punishable by six months in prison or up to 20 years in prison, respectively. The American Civil Liberties Union and other advocacy groups have warned immigrants to avoid traveling in Texas.

“How does that happen?” [information] filter out?” said Isacson. “Everyone has phones now and can get out of date very quickly where they go.”

California Governor Gavin Newsom’s office accused Republicans of sabotaging efforts to make progress on border security.

“In the absence of any political courage from the Republican Party, California has once again made historic investments and served as a model of partnership for a safe and humane border,” spokesperson Erin Mellon wrote in a statement.

Texas’ anti-immigration policies have pitted it against the Biden administration.

Last month, Texas lost its battle against the government over the use of barbed wire along the border. In a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court said Border Patrol agents may remove razor wire installed by Texas authorities that had prevented federal agents from monitoring areas along the Rio Grande.

A federal judge in Austin will decide whether Texas’ new law making illegal border crossings a state crime can go into effect on March 5.

Migration patterns along the border vary from month to month due to seasonal changes, including weather. But also after settlement

those normal fluctuations,

Last month’s arrest numbers were striking.

The El Paso and Del Rio, Texas, regions each saw fewer than 18,000 arrests in January, according to the latest Border Patrol figures. That is almost half the number in the same month a year earlier.

Meanwhile, migrants trying to enter the country illegally in the San Diego region were arrested nearly 25,000 times in January, a 60% increase from the same month last year, Border Patrol figures show.

Arizona saw an even bigger increase. Tuscon had

more than

According to the Border Patrol, 50,000 arrests have been made, compared to 20,000 last year.

Increased enforcement by the Mexican government is a factor in the decline along the Texas border, said Ariel Ruiz Soto, a policy analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute. Enforcement in Mexico, as far south as the town of Tapachula, which borders Guatemala, has disrupted migration routes along the path to Texas, while

to have

fewer

effect

on that

on the way to

Arizona and California.

Migrants of similar nationalities tend to move to certain border areas. A senior U.S. Customs and Border Protection official said apprehensions of migrant families from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, who tend to show up at the Texas border, typically decline in the first few months of the year.

Arrests in Arizona and California have increased steadily since last summer, the official said. San Diego has a more diverse population of arriving migrants, including those from as far away as China, Turkey and Guinea, and is smaller

affected

due to seasonality, as people from certain countries can buy plane tickets directly to Tijuana, one of the largest cities along the Mexican border.

After rising through January, weekly Border Patrol numbers showed 8,659 apprehensions near San Diego for the week ending Feb. 6, and a decline to 7,531 on Feb. 20.

Data from Customs and Border Protection shows that the number of arrests of Venezuelans fell by 75% between December and January. Ruiz Soto said this is because the governments of Panama and Colombia have stepped up their enforcement of the Darien Gap, the dangerous jungle.

route

between those two countries where many migrants pass on their way to the US

Smuggling patterns, that’s what they were

something

Has been consistent for many years and has shifted every few months since 2021, Isacson said. He pointed to the cartel battle in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, which borders Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, and the increase in the number of kidnappings of migrants.

San Diego has not been one of the top regions for migrant arrests for decades, Isacson said.

Citing increased migrant arrivals, CBP officials in December temporarily closed the San Ysidro West pedestrian crossing and redirected agents to assist Border Patrol agents in taking migrants into custody.

The Border Protection Agency official said they are screening nearly 1,000 people daily through an expedited removal process. But the agency does not have enough asylum officers to scale up these screenings, so many more migrants are placed in traditional deportation proceedings and released pending a final order from a judge, which could take years due to the backlog of millions of cases.

One result of the increased arrivals in California was the early closure Thursday of the San Diego Migrant Welcome Center, operated by the nonprofit SBCS, formerly South Bay Community Services.

The Customs and Border Protection official said this underlines the need for more funding. Area organizations, including Catholic Charities and Jewish Family Services, did not receive any additional federal money through FEMA’s shelter and services program this fiscal year.

A bipartisan bill blocked by Senate Republicans earlier this month would have funded sweeping immigration reform aimed at addressing unprecedented arrivals at the southern border. In the wake of the bill’s failure, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has warned it could resort to releasing thousands of detained immigrants in an effort to address a $700 million budget shortfall.

Senator Alex Padilla

(D-California.)

has introduced an amendment to the failed national security bill to include $5 billion in FEMA funding for migrant shelter and services. He told The Times he will continue working to increase such funds.

The federal government must increase its support for the community-based organizations providing important humanitarian assistance to migrants in California and across our southwest border,” he said in a statement.

When asked about the migration shift, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall) blamed the Biden administration. His district includes the Jacumba Hot Springs, where hundreds of migrants have been held in open-air camps.

“Biden has surrendered our sovereignty and is allowing foreign governments, many hostile to our national interest, to decide who can cross our borders, break our laws and remain in our country,” he said in a statement.

The San Diego Welcome Center, which opened in October, offered migrants Wi

–

Fi, food, and help coordinating transportation and shelter. It serves approximately 81,000 migrants.

The center operated with $6 million in COVID-19-era federal American Rescue Plan funds allocated through San Diego County. The money was expected to last through March. The county Board of Supervisors is working to develop a long-term plan for migrant transfer sites and respite shelters.

“As the number of migrants arriving at the center has increased significantly in recent weeks, our finite resources have been stretched to the limit,” SBCS President and General Manager Kathie Lembo said in a statement.

The Customs and Border Protection official said the agency has moved some staff to California since last year, but not in recent weeks. The agency is concerned about the decrease in humanitarian support due to the reception center closure and the impact it could have on border communities in California, the official said.

Nonprofit organizations offering services to migrants in the center,

including the legal services provider Al Otro Lado

, had to scramble to fill the void as migrant arrivals continued. The Border Patrol buses have dropped

about 350 migrants disembarked at a transit station

Friday,

the organization said

.