Smart but stinking strategies in the battle for the Senate in California
California politics, elections 2024, homepage news
George SkeltonFebruary 19, 2024
An age-old proverb comes into play in the battle for a U.S. Senate seat that the late Dianne Feinstein occupied for thirty years.
The proverb: The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Think of Roosevelt and Churchill helping dictator Stalin repel Hitler in World War II, or the Reagan administration supporting Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein in his war against anti-American Iran in the 1980s.
It’s true that a Senate race is not the same as a shooting war. Not exactly. But as the Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz put it in the early 19th century: Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed.
In war or politics, the old proverb speaks of a similar tactic: do whatever it takes to eliminate your greatest threat.
In the race to fill Feinstein’s former seat, the biggest threat to the Democratic frontrunner is not the leading Republican candidate, but another Democrat. It is virtually impossible for a Republican to win a California Senate seat in a state where Democrats have a nearly 2-to-1 voter advantage and the Republican Party has imploded.
That’s why Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Burbank), the frontrunner based on polling and campaign money, is fully committed to boosting Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey in the March 5 primary. Garvey, who has name identification
ID card
For older baseball fans, only spare change in his campaign funds and no political experience would be an easy pick in the November general election.
So Schiff is focused on promoting his favorite opponent in November, Garvey. It reminds me of gerrymandering, which is now banned in California but still practiced in many states where politicians choose their own voters when redrawing legislative and congressional districts.
Politicians who help their weakest opponent while stinking are of strategic importance in California. Our open primary system allows everyone to vote on the same ballot, regardless of party affiliation. And the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to the November elections. So it opens the door for two Democrats to run against each other.
Schiff’s biggest political threat is fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine. She could be a tough competitor in November. Porter is currently in a tight battle with Garvey for the No. 1. 2 drain spot.
That’s why
Schiff’s television ads promote Garvey to Republican viewers as a two-time Donald Trump supporter who could bring the Senate under Republican control. That’s ostensibly a knock on Garvey, but it’s meant to build support for him among Republican viewers. Garvey has no money to promote himself on TV, so Schiff does it for him.
Meanwhile, as I watch Schiff’s latest TV ad, he is now also subtly promoting Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who is in fourth place behind the field. It’s another way to help Garvey.
Ship
naturally
hopes Lee will take liberal and female votes away from Porter. Women dominate the Democratic voter base.
Schiff’s new TV spot uses footage from the four candidates’ first debate last month.
A narrator begins: The Democrats agree. Conservative Republican Steve Garvey is the wrong choice for the Senate.
Then the camera cuts to Lee, looking and sounding solid: Our Republican opponent here on this stage voted for Donald Trump twice.
ship not
usage
spends a lot of time on himself: Mr. Garvey, you voted for him twice.
Then comes Porter. Schiff’s advertising executive couldn’t have chosen a worse clip of hers. She looks irritated and uncomfortable and waves her hand, probably at Garvey. And she can’t be understood because someone is talking over her.
According to the ad script distributed to reporters, Porter’s muddled comment to Garvey reads: What is your decision, as your own man? That was probably a response to his refusal to say for the third time whether he voted for Trump. But there is no context for it in the ad. And no viewer can tell what she’s saying anyway.
It’s a very clever ad, says Republican consultant Rob Stutzman. Lee is prominently featured. And Porter, you can barely see her face. It’s three-dimensional chess.
A campaign spokesman for Schiff denied that helping Lee was part of the plan. Be that as it may, it just might do that. And it will probably hurt Porter.
In the interest of good government and democracy, I would rather see Porter or Lee take on Schiff in November. Garvey appears to have little knowledge of national issues or any policy agenda. He’s floating through the race on his remaining name ID and GOP brand among Republican voters. Porter or Lee would make for a more interesting matchup and give voters a credible choice.
After Schiff started promoting Garvey on TV, Porter wrote on X: Adam Schiff knows he’s going to lose to me in November. That’s what this blatantly cynical ad is about: furthering his own political career while excluding qualified Democratic female candidates. We need honest leadership, not political games.
But now Porter has gone off the main road and so he is
playing the same political game
she initially berated Schiff for hiring. She has an online ad designed to boost virtually unknown Republican candidate Eric Early among Republican voters. Her goal is to pull Republican votes away from Garvey early. MAGA Republican Eric Early proudly stands behind Donald Trump, while Steve Garvey refuses to tell us who he supports, the Porter ad says. Garvey claimed he might even vote for Joe Biden. It’s true that Garvey has dodged answering who he’s supporting for president this year. Schiff and Porter are both smart about following the rules. It’s not dirty. But as Porter first said, it’s downright cynical. Porter had her own TV spot that started with a one-second clip from Schiff’s ad. This advert? says the narrator, typically. Politicians. It’s bad. I am fine. Blah, blah. Let’s shake things up with Katie Porter. But Schiff plays by the rules of the system. It’s cynical and clever.
Gov. Gavin Newsom used the same tactic in 2018 when he ran against two high-profile Democrats, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Treasurer John Chiang in the
2018
gubernatorial primaries.
Newsom ran a TV ad promoting obscure Republican John Cox, pushing him into the November runoff.
Like Schiff with Garvey,
Newsom apparently attacked Cox for backing Donald Trump. That sold him to Republican voters.
Republican Garvey is now Democrat Schiff’s best friend until he drops him on March 6. Republican Garvey is now Democrat Schiff’s best friend and Early is Porter’s until both GOP members also go cold on March 6.
Fernando Dowling is an author and political journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. He has a deep understanding of the political landscape and a passion for analyzing the latest political trends and news.