Voters say California’s budget deficit is an “extremely serious” problem, a poll shows
California Politics
Taryn LunaJanuary 18, 2024
Half of California
registered voters
viewing the state’s budget deficit as an “extremely serious” problem, and
57%
believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, according to a new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.
The survey was conducted days before Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled an overview of his $291.5 billion spending plan for the next fiscal year and plans to address the problems
A $37.9 trillion deficit
projected by his government. But grimly, Newsom’s deficit estimate is rosier than the Legislative Analyst’s Office’s December projection of a
$68 billion
budget hole.
“Voters are concerned about it, and they’re going to push the governor and the Legislature to do something about it,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley poll and a longtime pollster in California.
The state budget is dependent
heavy
on capital gains
income
taxes paid by California’s highest earners,
to make
state revenues are sensitive
the
stock market volatility.
Lower-than-expected revenues, delayed tax deadlines and overspending based on inaccurate budget forecasts created California’s grim financial picture.
The governor’s proposed solution includes declaring a budget emergency to draw on the state’s rainy day reserves; to cut
$8.5 billion
in expenditures from programs supporting climate change efforts, housing, and other services; and reconsidering a minimum wage increase for health care
employees
.
pay raise.
When asked how they think California should make up for the deficit, a majority of voters say:
or 51%,
supporting cuts to government services, and
35%
wants to use the rainy day fund. The less popular savings measures include:
17%
of voters want to borrow from special funds.
The governor and voters appear to be united in their opposition to raising taxes
13%
backed in the Berkeley poll.
California Assemblymember Alex Lee (D-San Jose) has proposed raising taxes under his proposed Wealth Tax Act, which would impose a 1.5% tax on wealth over $ 1 billion; and a 1% tax on net assets in excess of $50 million and an additional 0.5% tax on net assets in excess
a
$1 billion from 2026.
in 2026 and beyond.
The governor has repeatedly rejected the idea of raising state taxes to make up for the shortfall.
DiCamillo said that while voters oppose raising taxes in general, they favor specific proposals that would raise taxes on the wealthy or anyone other than themselves. “Tax the rich, tax the corporations, but don’t raise my property taxes and don’t raise my income taxes,” DiCamillo said of Californians.
Support for taxes on the wealthy has laid the foundation for California’s progressive tax structure, which leads to wild revenue swings for the state, DiCamillo said.
Newsoms
46%
The approval rating from the January poll remains unchanged
S
largely unchanged from late October, when voters cast their ballots
gave game
him historically low figures. This was evident from the latest poll
47%
disapproval of his job performance as governor. Newsom leaves office in 2026, so he doesn’t have to worry about re-election.
in California.
The deficit creates a new political dilemma for Newsom as he is forced to make tough spending decisions during budget negotiations with lawmakers in coming months that could frustrate his allies and voters.
Environmental groups have reversed the governor’s nearly $3 billion in cuts to climate change programs. Other groups, such as the County Welfare Directors Assn.,
association,
were concerned about cuts to social services.
Overall, voters showed little confidence in the state’s direction:
57%
said California is going in the wrong direction and alone
a third
said things are going well, according to the poll.
The Berkeley IGS poll was conducted online Jan. 4-8 among a random sample of 8,199 registered voters in California, including a weighted subsample of 4,470 voters likely to participate in the March 5 primary.
The results are weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so margin of error estimates may be inaccurate. The results have an estimated margin of error of 1.5 percentage points in either direction for the full sample.
Fernando Dowling is an author and political journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. He has a deep understanding of the political landscape and a passion for analyzing the latest political trends and news.