Barring a colossal election mistake, former president

Donald

Trump wants to win

tonight Monday night

Iowa caucuses.

But the results will provide clues as to whether Trump still has an iron grip on his party.

Will Trump win by an overwhelming margin, as polls have suggested? Or will he win narrower than expected because he fails to reach the high bar he has set for himself?

Who comes second? Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will compete for the silver medal. Whoever comes in second will get bragging rights and more attention from reporters and donors ahead of next week’s New Hampshire primary.

DeSantis and Haley have each argued that they are the real Republican alternative to the former president. A strong showing here could help one of their cases. Conversely, a poor showing can force one or the other to end their bid. DeSantis, who has invested heavily in Iowa and has visited all of the state’s 99 counties, is especially at risk if he loses badly.

In a Des Moines Register poll released Saturday, Trump had the support of 48% of likely caucusgoers, while Haley had 20%, DeSantis 16% and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy 8%.

At one point, Republican leaders predicted a turnout

tonight Monday

The caucuses could surpass the record 187,000 people who participated in the 2016 Republican caucuses.

But the bitterly cold weather and nearly two feet of snow that have blanketed the state could stifle turnout. Even in metropolitan areas like Des Moines, some roads remained icy Monday; Conditions are much worse in the more rural parts of the state. The highest point on Monday is

minus

-2, and the temperature is expected to feel like

minus-

32

Monday

night if the perceived temperature is taken into account.

Republicans argued that Iowans are cordial and know how to deal with the unprecedented caucus weather.

This is truly one of the worst we’ve ever had, said former US governor. Terry Branstad, who was also Trump’s ambassador to China. But we have the equipment, and they will clear the roads. It’s going to be very cold, but Iowans know how to handle it.

Unlike a primary, where voters cast ballots throughout the day or even in advance, caucuses take place in person and at a set time. Iowans will gather at 1,657 precincts across the state at 7 p.m., listen to speeches from the candidates’ supporters and then cast their votes.

S

for their choice.

(Democrats will not hold a presidential caucus Monday night after disrupting the 2020 process so badly that an official winner was never formally determined.)

The top three Republican candidates have raised expectations, and on Monday they all tried to lower them.

Trump’s strong showing in the polls and crowing about his popularity in the state could come back to bite him if he doesn’t reach 50% in the caucuses.

On Sunday, the former president urged his voters not to be complacent and said he feared things would be nasty out there.

You can’t sit at home, he said in Indianola, jokingly adding: If you’re as sick as a dog, even if you vote and then die, it’s worth it.

Iowa is the base of DeSantis’ campaign, and his supporters boast strong organizing on the ground to produce voters for the caucuses.

He was defiant in the run-up to the caucuses.

They can throw a blizzard on us and we’ll fight, he told supporters in West Des Moines on Saturday. They can give us chills and we will fight. They can throw media stories at us, and we’ll fight. They can throw fake polls at us, and we’ll fight.

Haley’s campaign is stronger in New Hampshire, but her numbers in Iowa have risen in recent polls. She lagged behind in establishing a ground game here, but she received support from a group linked to the Koch brothers and which claims to have a strong organization on the ground.

“[M]“My expectation for myself is to come out strong in Iowa, to come out strong in New Hampshire and to come out strong in South Carolina,” Haley told Fox News after rallying supporters last week Ankeny had collected. We won’t know what strong looks like until we see what the results are.”