LA Times poll: Younger, older Californians have starkly different views on the war between Israel and Hamas
Israel-Hamas, California Politics
David Lauter Jaweed KaleemJanuary 12, 2024
Three months of war between Israel and Hamas have sharply divided Californians, with deep divisions between the state’s older and younger voters, a new statewide poll shows.
Voters under 30 are far more likely to sympathize with Palestinians than Israelis, while voters over 65 side with Israel, according to the new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.
By means of
55%-18%
voters
under 30
saying that Israel must agree to a ceasefire even if it means Hamas remains a fighting force in Gaza.
Among voters
over 65 years old,
The opinion is almost the opposite: through
52%-32%
These voters believe that Israel should keep fighting until Hamas is no longer viable.
Twenty seven
percent of the youngest voters and
16
% of people over 65 had no opinion, the poll showed.
The survey shows similarly sharp divisions along ideological lines, with the state’s most liberal voters overwhelmingly saying Israel is using too much military force in the war, while conservative voters say its use of force is about right or has been too little.
Jen Julian, a 26-year-old progressive voter living in Los Angeles, is among those who think the war has been too expensive. The death toll among Palestinians, which Gaza health authorities estimate is more than 23,000, was “too high a human price,” she said in an interview.
Israel launched its airstrikes and a ground invasion of Gaza after Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 1. At least 1,200 people were killed and more than 240 hostages were taken hostage.
“I understand that Israel was attacked and felt it had to respond, but this is far too much for far too long,” she said.
Joey Johnson, a 68-year-old conservative from Redding, had a different view.
“This looks like September 11 in Israel,” Johnson said. “If America were to be attacked by terrorists in the same way as Israel, we would also want to do everything we can to prevent this from ever happening again. But it is of course tragic that innocent people are dying in Gaza.”
The two-state solution is still dominant
Although opinions on the current war are sharply divided, the poll shows that California voters agree on the future of the conflict.
Separate, independent Israeli and Palestinian states that divide the country remain the favored option for all but the most conservative voters.
That so-called two-state solution has been official U.S. policy for decades and at various points in the past, at least nominally accepted as a goal by the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority, which has limited government power in the West Bank.
However, an independent Palestinian state is opposed by right-wing Israelis, who have strong influence in the current government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Hamas and other radical Palestinian groups reject Israel’s continued existence.
Among California voters, the two-state solution is supported by a large majority of those who have an opinion
47%
rather two states, while
25%
have no opinion and the rest divide among other options.
Two states is what Rabbi Jonathan Klein is hoping for.
As the leader of Temple Beth El in Bakersfield and a self-described “lifelong liberal Zionist,” Klein, 55, said he has been keeping a close eye on news from Israel and Gaza.
“My community almost universally supports Israel’s efforts to combat what they see as an existential threat,” Klein said.
“But I recognize that just because Jews have a historical connection to the area doesn’t mean that other people don’t. Do I think coexistence is possible? I hope so, but I don’t know at this point.”
The poll finds significantly less support for an option embraced by some on the left of a unified binational state. One in eight voters said they would like to see a single state that would be neither Jewish nor Palestinian. Support for this comes mainly from the left
just under 1 in 5
of the state’s liberals who support it.
There is very little support for Hamas’ goal: an Arab state that would control all the territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. While that idea was supported by demonstrators at some recent protests, that’s just the way it is
3%
of voters in the state support this. Support rises to
7%
among those
under 30
And
8th%
of those who identify as
strongly liberal
.
“Israel is an illegitimate state,” said Reza Nekumanesh, a 47-year-old Iranian American living in Fresno. “I do not believe that this means that a certain group of people does not have the right to live and exist there in peace, equality and justice,” Nekumanesh said. “But I don’t believe that a state should be based and centered on an ethnic or religious identity.”
On the other side of the ideological spectrum
11%
of the state’s voters support a single Israeli state controlling the entire territory, the goal of the Israeli right.
However, Netanyahu and his allies have strong support within Republican ranks, and support for Israeli control of the entire region is rising
31%
among the states
Republican
voters and
43%
of those who identify as
strongly conservative
.
Divided sympathies
The poll finds
30%
of California voters say they sympathize more with Israelis than Palestinians in the current conflict, and a similar share,
28%,
sympathize with both parties equally.
Mordecai Miller, a 74-year-old resident of Redwood City, said he felt pain for both sides, but after Oct. 1 he felt closer to the fate of the Israelis. 7.
“None of this war would have happened if Hamas had not deliberately attacked Israel and sought to eradicate the country,” Miller said. “Israel is forced to take revenge.”
A slightly smaller share
24%,
say they sympathize more with the Palestinians.
That includes Rami Sultan, a Palestinian American in Santa Clara who has family in Gaza.
The 41-year-old tech worker said he was outraged
Through
what he described as ‘genocide’.
“This is not a war against Hamas at all. This is a clear war against the Palestinian people,” Sultan said.
Sympathies vary dramatically by age and ideology.
For example, among voters under the age of 30
44%
say they sympathize more with the Palestinians, while being righteous
14%
say they sympathize more with the Israelis and
21%
with both equally.
Among people over 65
46%
sympathize more with the Israelis,
13%
with the Palestinians and
32%
with both equally.
Biden was in the middle of it
The divided opinions on the war have made President Biden vulnerable to criticism from both the left and the right.
jumpsuit,
55%
of voters in the state disapprove of Biden’s response, while
33%
approve.
But
64%
of voters who describe themselves as
strongly liberal
disapproval of Biden’s response to the conflict, as is the case
67%
of those who identify as
strongly conservative.
The clear division by age is an important factor
69%
of voters
under 30
And
65%
of this
30-39
disapproval of the way Biden has handled the conflict.
Melissa Brown, a 40-year-old conservative voter in San Diego, said Biden “was initially very strong on Israel, as he should have been.”
“He is still strong, but you can see him succumbing to pressure from the left, sending messages that Israel needs to tone down its self-defense,” she said. “I do not agree.”
Concerns about anti-Semitism and Islamophobia
Despite their differences over the war and the underlying Israeli-Palestinian conflict, large majorities of California voters, across party lines, share concerns about an increase in anti-Jewish or anti-Arab violence or hate incidents.
When asked about anti-Semitic incidents:
80
% of California voters say they are concerned about them,
12
% wasn’t worried. In the same way,
75
% said they were concerned about anti-Arab or anti-Muslim incidents, compared to
17
% who were not concerned.
The poll showed very little division along ideological or party lines in concerns about anti-Semitism, but a noticeable partisan divide on anti-Muslim incidents.
Among Democrats, the portion that expressed concern about anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim hatred was about equality. Among the Republicans
81
% said they were concerned about anti-Semitism, while
13
% were not. But
60
% worried about anti-Muslim hatred, compared to
31
% who were not.
The Berkeley IGS poll surveyed 8,199 California registered voters. It took place online in English and Spanish on January 4 and 8.
The results are weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so margin of error estimates may be inaccurate; however, the results
for the likely voter sample
have an estimated margin of error of 1.5 percentage points in either direction
.
Fernando Dowling is an author and political journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. He has a deep understanding of the political landscape and a passion for analyzing the latest political trends and news.