In 2022, when the Supreme Court’s Republican bloc revoked the constitutional right to abortion, which had been enshrined in U.S. law since January 22, 1973, more than a few observers compared the Republican Party to the dog that finally took the station wagon. What would Republicans do now that they were unleashed to pursue their unpopular anti-abortion agenda across the country?

Ultimately, the car metaphor turned out to be a vehicle error. The GOP looks more like a dog that caught a Greyhound bus. And it won’t consume that rolling piece of metal anytime soon.

A non-governmental political party that agrees on little other than its own will to power and an undying desire to own the libs is unlikely to reach a compromise on a difficult issue like abortion. After a half-century of Republican abortion politics, it’s humiliating that the party was completely unprepared for a victory that, let’s face it, many Republican strategists hoped never to see.

During the recent Republican Party presidential debate, CNN reported: “The five candidates on stage for the NBC debate in Miami offered at least five different positions on the extent to which abortion should be allowed and on whether federal government or the states The measurement of the approaches underscored how Republicans who for years used the stark clarity of anti-abortion policy to energize their voters now find themselves without any compelling position to combat the political messages of Democrats and pro-abortion rights groups.”

Ban it after six weeks. No, after 15. No, leave that to the United States. No, introduce a national ban once and for all. The problem is that, as Josh Marshall pointed out in Talking Points Memo, the bans at different times on a previously legal right only lead to the bank robber offering to give back half of the stolen money. raid. It turns out that Americans don’t like having their rights summarily revoked, even if they get to keep them for a few weeks before they’re snatched away.

Democratic victories in the elections earlier this month, which were largely driven by demands for abortion rights, have deepened divisions among Republicans. There is simply no logical way to appease a party whose base is passionately against abortion but equally determined to do something, including, for many, jettisoning its position on abortion to gain power. But there can be one

politics

way to square that lumpy circle.

His name is Donald Trump.

In the topsy-turvy world of conservative America, only this amoral figure can deliver the moral victory the anti-abortion movement craves. Only an avid liar has the credibility to pull this off.

In the absence of Trump, intramural abortion politics would likely move in the same direction as most politicians within the Republican Party. Anyone looking for compromise will be in trouble because of what my colleague Jonathan Bernstein calls the true conservative cycle. Republicans from far-right districts will demand allegiance to the most far-right, true conservative position, no matter how destructive, stupid or dejected, because it is more important to be a true conservative who cries in anger than a RINO compromised by the need to to rule. Of course, after many seasons of happy hunting, there are few true RINOs left, so the “true conservative” rhetoric is now aimed at any fellow conservative who doesn’t pass the latest ultra-purity test.

Trump is the only one who can push his way through the Republican party’s abortion test without lighting a fuse under the real conservative powder keg. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, on the other hand, who is visibly looking for a way out of the abortion dilemma, is in danger of turning to a pulp.

The Republican Party’s most devout crusaders remained loyal to Trump through multiple exposes of his fraud, sexual assaults, sordid cover-ups of sordid sexual encounters, and more depravity than anyone could ever remember. When

What

published in the New York Post

what it’s called

girl-on-girl pornography with Melania Trump

What

published

in the mail

during the 2016 presidential campaign, the black-and-white photos in Rupert Murdoch’s right-wing tabloid conservatives shrugged their shoulders. Then they wanted to ban books with lesbian characters from the library. Trump’s claim that he could get away with murder on 5th Avenue was no joke; it was a recipe.

Trump accomplished the reversal of Roe by appointing three anti-abortion justices to the Supreme Court. He has often taken credit for Roe’s demise, a claim Democrats want to amplify. But after many recent Republican defeats, Trump has largely stopped crowing. He has made it known that he is embarrassed by the party’s straitjacket for abortion. He called a six-week abortion ban a terrible thing.

This will not impress American voters who support abortion rights. But Trump’s emerging obscurity could soften the kind of rare, often uninformative voters who are likely to play a major role in the 2024 election. His signature lack of credible details is merely a red flag for people whose primary focus is spend on details or credibility.

Would Trump’s Christian conservative base abandon him because he suddenly went shaky on abortion? Absolutely not. Above all, white Christian nationalists want power over others. Should Trump be elected, his MAGA officer corps has indicated that the democracy game will be over anyway and new rules will apply. Provided Trump can exert sufficient extralegal force, the new regime will be in a position to reward its far-right Christian supporters with whatever draconian policies they wish.

A few true believers may still experience some cognitive dissonance. A student group recently showed up outside Trump’s rally in Florida with signs that read: Make Trump Pro-Life Again.

You have to respect their commitment to the cause. But MAGA politics now dictates a different approach. For the 2024 campaign, Trump is eager to temporarily throw his anti-abortion allies under the bus while still counting on them to vote for him. They will almost certainly come along. If Trump actually reaches the Oval Office, they can be assured that he will overwhelm their enemies once and for all.

Francis Wilkinson is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.

@fdwilkinson