Why the fall of Kevin McCarthy puts California Republicans in a difficult position
Elections 2024, California politics
Erin B LoganNovember 2, 2023
Since Republicans in the House of Representatives unanimously elected Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson as Speaker last week, the Republican Party has tried to portray itself as an emboldened party ready to take on President Biden and the… the Democratic-controlled Senate.
But for California Republicans, Johnson’s election brings a host of potential problems that could make survival in a deep blue state even more difficult than it already was.
The impeachment of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is the first of those challenges. McCarthy’s fundraising allies have said they will work with Johnson to keep the money flowing into Republicans’ coffers. But Johnson has proven relatively little as a fundraiser, and McCarthy, who raised more than $500 million in the last election cycle, rose to the top of his party in part because of his ability to raise money.
McCarthy’s loss of senior leadership could have especially dire consequences for California’s Republican state party, which has long relied on him to keep money flowing to the Golden State, said Mike Madrid, a Republican anti-Trump adviser.
who has become a critic of the party
.
“Kevin McCarthy was the last card that kept the house that we call the Republican Party of California alive,” Madrid said. “He was the last reason any money actually flowed through the operation.”
With McCarthy no longer serving as speaker, “that money is going to dry up very, very quickly,” Madrid added. “The state party will find it very difficult to stay afloat while the country is already sinking.”
Even before his first election to Congress in 2006, McCarthy demonstrated his worth by raising and sending money to fellow candidates and the National Republican Congressional Committee. As he rose in the party leadership, donors became increasingly eager to donate their money. This was a godsend for the state party, which had struggled to raise enough money to field competing candidates in more secure Democratic districts.
Madrid said it is highly unlikely that candidates in California’s most competitive districts will see their bank accounts dry up. Donors inside and outside the state will continue to give to protect them.
the five Republicans holding out
District President Biden won Young Kim of Anaheim Hills, David Valadao of Hanford, Mike Garcia of Santa Clarita, Michelle Steel of Seal Beach and John Duarte of Modesto in 2020.
When donors don’t deliver
for those members, the Republican Party could lose its majority in the House of Representatives.
But Madrid said:
for
Republicans in safe districts and donors are unlikely to want to invest because it is unlikely that anything will change.
California Republicans in swing districts backed Trump ally Jordan for speaker
Even if the money keeps flowing,
in,
California Republicans have another one
new
problem: the Democrats would like to tie them to the deeply arch-conservative Louisiana Republicans whom they have elevated to the second post in line for the presidency.
“Johnson is as extreme as it gets. He led the plot to overturn the 2020 election. He is a Trump loyalist. Above all, he is a MAGA extremist,” a new ad from the Congressional Integrity Project, a Democratic nonprofit, warns California voters. . “This is what John Duarte voted for. Tell him to stop putting MAGA above the American people.”
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Tuesday changed its assessment of Valadao’s race from “lean Republicans” to “toss-up.” “The Battle for the Speakership”
“House Democrats’ confidence that they can flip the five seats they need to win back the chamber by convincing swing voters that ‘dysfunctional’ Republicans cannot be trusted with the keys to power ” wrote Dave Wasserman, a senior editor and election analyst. at Cook.
“Californians are eager to reject extremism [Valadao]“This made it possible,” Dan Gottlieb, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a news release.
That kind of attack may have some resonance in California. While McCarthy may not have been popular with Democrats, he was a Californian. The differences between his home county of Bakersfield and the rest of the state are not as stark as the differences between California and the Deep South.
Although McCarthy refused to certify any part of the 2020 presidential election results, Johnson went a step further and rallied
well more than
One hundred Republicans supported his letter supporting a lawsuit to overturn the election. Johnson has repeatedly supported measures to ban abortion nationwide and worked for a nonprofit group, labeled an anti-LGBTQ hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center, that defended state-sanctioned sterilization of transgender people. These are positions that are at odds with many voters in swing districts.
But
Jon Fleischman, former executive director of the California Republican Party, doesn’t think connecting vulnerable California Republicans to Johnson will go far for voters.
“I don’t think the speaker’s ideological views matter at all,” Fleischman said. “It is not clear to me that the positions on the issues of the new speaker are really different from the positions on the issues of the old speaker.”
Thirty-eight percent of Republicans surveyed in an October Economist/YouGov poll said they wanted House members to support the candidate supported by the majority of the caucus, even if they disagreed with the candidate, while 33% of Republicans said they shouldn’t.
“I don’t think they’re going to judge their congressman based on who their party puts forward as chairman,” Fleischman said. “If there is any potential for influence, it will not be the Louisiana congressman’s views on the issues of the day.”
It may be easier for Democratic groups to tie lawmakers to former President Trump, Fleischman argued.
Trump is the Republican Party’s likely presidential candidate, very popular among the Republican base, but still deeply unpopular among swing voters. “These incumbents will have to run for president under the banner of Trump,” Fleischman said.
Still, Republicans and their allies will try to pinpoint races and focus on specific issues to highlight the role their candidates can play in Washington.
“Californians are demanding relief from the rising costs of living, gas prices and violent crime fueled by far-left politics in DC and Sacramento,” Ben Petersen, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement.
“Voters want solutions to these issues and trust Republicans to fight for them. That’s why they will send them back to Congress in 2024.”

Fernando Dowling is an author and political journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. He has a deep understanding of the political landscape and a passion for analyzing the latest political trends and news.