Fiona Hill is worried.

The former Russia adviser to then-President Trump fears that support for Ukraine is gradually eroding, encouraging Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to wait out the West.

Putin has the feeling that everything is moving in his favor, she warns.

But she worries about much more than that, starting with Israel’s war in Gaza, which has made the world a more dangerous place.

The two conflicts are not directly related, but there is a good chance that they influence each other.

These can be global

–

system-changing wars, something like World War I and World War II, that reflected and brought about major changes in the international order, she said. In a sense, the Hamas attack on Israel was a kind of Pearl Harbor moment. It opened a second front.

Most of the world’s major powers have united in two opposing coalitions: the United States and its allies on one side; Russia, China and Iran, on the other hand. One of those coalitions supports both Ukraine and Israel. The other doesn’t.

Last week I met Hill to hear her thoughts on the unfolding global crisis.

It was a sobering thing

tour dhorizon

seen through the eyes of Russia observers.

Let’s start with Ukraine, which has been fighting for its independence for more than a year despite a Russian invasion.

The United States and its European allies have provided billions of dollars in weapons and financial aid to halt Putin’s drive to retake Russian power.

E

mpir.

But Ukraine’s progress has been painfully slow, causing impatience not only in the US but also in Europe.

We are placing too much weight on Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Hill said. This will be a long war. Putin thinks if he holds out long enough we will give up.

The Russian leader is also clearly waiting for 2024 and the prospect that Trump could return to the White House and cut off aid to Ukraine, she added.

An early test will take place in the coming weeks

,

when Congress considers Biden’s request for $61 billion in new aid for Ukraine. The last time the House of Representatives faced such a request, 93 Republicans voted against it, including newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

Now add the second front in the global conflict: Gaza.

This helps Putin, Hill said. It will distract the United States and European supporters from Ukraine.

It is not clear whether the weapons the United States is rushing to Israel will come from stockpiles destined for Ukraine. But Biden’s request for $14 billion in aid to Israel makes the burden on Congress and taxpayers seem heavier.

The next piece on the global chessboard is China, which Biden, like Trump before him, has identified as the United States’ main competitor.

Under President Xi Jinping, China has strengthened its alliance with Russia.

China does not want to remain alone without any other major power as an ally, Hill explained. Xi needs Putin and Putin needs Xi.

But that creates a problem for the United States, she said: We will have no hope of limiting Russia’s options and calming the Middle East if we have a super-antagonistic relationship with China.

She thinks the Biden administration should try a Nixon

–

Unpleasant

–

China’s efforts to reduce hostility

referring to then-

President Nixon

‘s opening did when he opened

a relationship with Mao Zedong in 1972.

Finally, Hill is concerned about one more country: the United States, which is heading into a presidential election that is as polarized as ever.

Putin is not the only world leader waiting for the 2024 outcome.

If the rest of the world thinks that every time there is a new government we will tear up the agreements we just made, we will not be seen as a very reliable partner, she warned.

Is there anything encouraging about this photo?

Hill has spent much of the past year touring the United States, and she says her audience is thirsty for an end to the national strife.

She discusses Russia and foreign policy during appearances on college campuses and with community groups. But she also talks about her history as a miner’s daughter who grew up in poverty in the north of England

,

but thanks to hard work and lucky holidays one

PhD PhD

at Harvard, became an American citizen and got a job in the White House.

That personal story has made her passionate about promoting social mobility as a remedy to the discontent that contributed to Trump’s election in 2016.

Along the way, she’s noticed something in her adopted country that has surprised her: We don’t have a unifying national figure that everyone respects.

In less polarized eras, she noted, the president often enjoyed that status, but that hasn’t been the case for at least a decade.

Who now speaks to the entire country? she asked. Taylor Swift? Arnold Schwarzenegger?

It’s a good question.

Is there anyone who commands broad respect from both parties and who can bring a fractured country together?

At first, Taylor Swift struck me as a bit far-fetched. But on reflection we could have done a lot worse.