The Palestinian militant attack on Israel

on

Saturday, possibly the deadliest and largest ever, will dramatically change the diplomatic and political calculations in the Middle East and rob Washington of any leverage it has in influencing Israel, diplomats and politicians.

analyzes analysts

participation.

It is almost certain that Israel will respond with a full frontal assault on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip and possibly parts of the West Bank, in what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already called an all-out war. A ground invasion, 18 years after Israel withdrew from Gaza, cannot be ruled out, experts say.

The looming and urgent question will then be whether the fighting spreads further in the region, involving Lebanon or other areas where anti-Israel militants, including Hezbollah, are based.

As the death toll among Israelis and Palestinians steadily rose on Saturday, the capture of numerous Israeli hostages by Palestinian Hamas militants who infiltrated southern Israel represents a new element with unpredictable consequences.

Another immediate casualty of the unprecedented violence will be U.S.-backed efforts to open relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a highly regarded, historic step that has gained momentum in recent weeks.

To finalize the deal, Saudi Arabia has demanded a number of concessions from the US and Israel, including steps that would bring the Palestinians closer to establishing an independent state. That concession was steadfastly opposed by Netanyahu and his ultraconservative government, even as the Biden administration has famously pushed for the two-state solution.

Any leverage the Biden administration had to extract concessions from Netanyahu to improve conditions for Palestinians has completely disappeared, said Aaron David Miller, a veteran former Middle East envoy now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

While perhaps not dead yet, Miller said in an interview, normalization has taken a major hit.

We don’t know where this is all going, but the bloodiness will increase on all sides.

Shocked by the scale of the carnage, it would be impossible for any Israeli prime minister to make concessions to the Palestinians at this point, several analysts said. Likewise, the high death toll among Palestinian civilians would have undermined any overtures the Saudis might have been willing to make toward

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Israel.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken was scheduled to travel to Israel, the Palestinian city of Ramallah and Saudi Arabia next week.

(week of 10-15)

but that trip may now be cancelled. At the very least, it will become a mission of crisis diplomacy rather than efforts to make progress in building ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

In Washington, meanwhile, the White House jumped into crisis mode. Blinken joined President Biden and other senior national security officials for emergency meetings. Blinken called world leaders in an attempt to decide on a course of action, a State Department spokesman said.

American condemnation of the massive surprise attack was uniform and universal. European governments, which tend to be more sympathetic to the Palestinians than US governments, were also highly critical of the attack.

The United States unequivocally condemns Hamas terrorists’ abhorrent attacks on Israel, including civilians and civilian communities, Blinken said in a statement. There is never any justification for terrorism. We stand in solidarity with the government and people of Israel and express our condolences for the Israeli lives lost in these attacks.

We will remain in close contact with our Israeli partners. The United States supports Israel’s right to defend itself.

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said the Pentagon would work to ensure Israel gets what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism. He did not elaborate.