Friday’s death of California Senator Dianne and Governor. Gavin Newsom’s choice of veteran politician Laphonza Butler as her short-term replacement has brought two critical questions to the forefront of the state’s political scene:

Will Butler run for a full term in the Senate in next year’s elections? And if she does, how seriously will she shake up the race that is in full swing?

The first question remains unanswered; Butler has not said whether she plans to run.

, who said she was asked to fill the seat on Saturday, said she doesn’t know what she wants to do. copy desk: Leave this quote in the notes, we’ll pass it along in the morning after the Butler interview is published. “I have no idea. I really don’t know,” Butler told The Times in her first interview since being appointed. “I want to focus on honoring Senator Feinstein’s legacy. I want to dedicate my time and energy to serving the people of California. And I want to carry her baton with the honor it deserves and so I really have no idea.”

“The politics can wait,” Matt Wing, a spokesman for Butler, told The Times in a written statement.

“This week, Laphonza is focused on respecting and honoring Senator Feinstein’s legacy and preparing to serve the people of California in the Senate.”

The second question divided political pundits as they digested news of her nomination on Monday. Whether Butler will serve 15 months and then resign, or enter the race himself, could upend the campaign strategies of the three prominent Democrats already running for Senate: Reps. Barbara Lee of Oakland, Katie Porter of Irvine and Adam Schiff of Burbank. Butler has close ties to organizations that can help her build a serious fundraising operation.

“I think Butler would be a very formidable candidate capable of making the top two,” he said.

Heading from the primaries to the general election, Feinstein’s 2018 campaign manager Jeff Millman said, citing her fundraising prowess. “Democrats like candidates who have government experience.”

But that’s if she plans to run

.

“Most people believe that this race is too far and that it would be so violent to the democratic process,” said former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who unsuccessfully ran for governor of California in 2018 .

“I don’t expect her to do that,” he said. “I really think she will do very well to fill the shoes of a trailblazer.”

Feinstein broke barriers as the first woman elected to represent California in the Senate, and Butler will be the state’s first LGBTQ+ senator.

This comes after Newsom said last month that he would like to see a caregiver in the role, only to return later

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criticism from progressives. lee

,

who is Black, challenged the governor, saying that choosing a Black woman for a short-term appointment is “insulting.” On Sunday, hours before Butler’s nomination was announced, a Newsom administration official told The Times that if his appointee “decides she wants to pursue a full term in 2024, she is free to do so.”

Newsom pledged to appoint a Black woman in 2021 if Feinstein’s seat ever becomes vacant, an effort to calm Black leaders’ frustration after appointing Sen. Alex Padilla to replace then-Sen. Kamala Harris in the Senate after being elected vice president

.

Harris’ departure left the 100-member Senate without a single black woman

woman

member.

After Butler’s expected inauguration by Harris on Tuesday, there would be four black senators, a record for the first time in American history.

Despite trailing in the polls and lagging in fundraising, Lee has said her candidacy was not just about positioning herself for appointment in the event Feinstein were to leave early, but focused on raising enough money and amassing of sufficient support to prevail in March. primary. Lee campaign focus groups and surveys conducted last month found that most California voters had little awareness of the Senate race and that Lee “probably only needs 27% of the vote to get into the top two “,

and move on to the general election,

according to a memo from her campaign.

“I’m running very fast to win this race,” Lee said on CNN on Monday. “Obviously it would have been great because I wanted to fill the position. But listen, we all just have to focus on what we’re doing.”

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everything

the past weeks

from members of the Congressional Black Caucus for Newsom to appoint Lee to fill a potential vacancy drew more attention to her campaign. The question now is whether she will get a jump in the polls

want to

have stronger fundraising numbers. Lee had about $1.4 million in cash on hand at the end of June, according to federal campaign finance reports.

Both Porter and Schiff have raised much more than Lee. Schiff announced Monday that he had $32 million in cash on hand after raising $6 million in the third quarter. Porter has not released her latest fundraising numbers but had $10.3 million in her campaign account through June.

Lee, Porter and Schiff all applauded Newsom’s choice, with the Oakland representative saying she “looked forward to working closely with her to make Golden State a reality” and Porter issuing a statement praising Butler for ” her career standing up for women and working families.”

Political strategists and former elected officials said Porter and Schiff’s fundraising efforts give them a substantial advantage

the

Primary March. Butler, they said, could build an operation and have the chops to raise money quickly, but that would be a tall order.

“I don’t care who you are, or how attractive you are as a candidate, or as a politician, or anything else,” said longtime Democratic political strategist Garry South. “You can’t build a viable statewide campaign in a state like California in five months, especially with the holidays right in the middle.”

“There are more than 21 million registered voters in California,” South added. “Do 21,000 people know who she is?”

Veteran political strategist Bill Carrick, a longtime adviser to Feinstein, said that although Schiff, Porter and Lee announced their candidacies months ago, it would not be too late for a new candidate to enter the race.

None of the three leading Democratic candidates have previously held statewide office, he said, and polls show all have relatively little support.

“It’s not like anyone starts with a built-in foundation,” Carrick said. “If you and I were in a focus group right now, I think we would find that most people don’t know much about these people.”

Butler is “extremely intelligent,” Carrick said, and would bring a long and varied resume to the campaign trail if she decided to run.

That includes more than a decade as president of Service Employees International Union Local 2015, which Carrick called the “largest and most politically savvy” union in California, as well as her ties to the political fundraising community around the world.

EMILYs

Emily’s List, which he said could help her quickly tap into a broad network of potential donors.

from EMILY

Emily’s List is a powerful political organization that funnels millions of dollars every election cycle to help elect Democratic women who support abortion access

to apply as a candidate

.

“It gives you a large universe of women donors who are responding to fundraising needs in very efficient ways,” Carrick said.

If Butler were to launch a Senate run, her campaign support system (financial or otherwise) would likely be heavily dependent on the organizations where she previously worked. The Emilys List and SEIU 2015 endorsements will be coveted by the candidates already declared.

“I am confident that these three have deep relationships with the entities they come from,” the former California governor said. Gray Davis, who has yet to enter the Senate race. “It’s clear that she will get a lot of attention in the short term. On the other hand, I can tell you how difficult it is to become known in a state of 39 million people. It takes years and years.”

Whether she runs for a full term or not, it’s clear that Butler’s star is rising in California politics and the coming months may not be the last time she holds or seeks elected office.

Whether she chooses to exercise her right to run for office in the next 60 days remains to be seen,” said a person associated with the California labor community who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, “but I don’t think This is the last time we may see her put her name in the ring for elected office.”

Times staff writer Taryn Luna contributed to this report.