President Biden believes he can win a referendum on former President Trump’s fitness for office. But the history of modern elections suggests that voters’ doubts about the economy could prevail

all the fears they may have

a threat to democracy.

not quite in love with the grammar of this, so welcome suggestions/how about something like this? Mon Sun

this week Biden is traveling around the country

with a dual purpose: to show Americans that he understands their economic concerns and can help alleviate them, and to attack the character of his likely opponent in 2024. to show that he can deliver messages that sympathize with Americans sympathizing with the economic turmoil as well as those that attack the character of his opponent.

He walked the picket line with striking auto workers in Michigan on Tuesday, using a bullhorn to tell them to “stand by.” It’s planned

Thursday Wednesday

to make a major speech about democracy in Arizona, another swing state and another

that was a target of Trump’s, where Trump focused a lot of his efforts

attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

Biden’s top 2020 pollster, Celinda Lake,

acknowledged that

his inability to convince Americans that he can improve their economic position is a major problem.

since the party has Democrats

has not been able to win a presidential election without leadership in recent decades

at least

linking polls in which voters are asked which party can best handle the economy.

To the Democrats’ frustration: But

“If character should be 40% of the vote, why isn’t this guy?

who is about to go to prison for inciting violence and being guilty of corruption

just disqualified? she said about Trump,

Who If is facing four charges related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

An NBC News poll released Tuesday showed Republicans with a 21 percentage point lead over Democrats

on the question of dealing with the economy, that question,

the largest margin

recorded since then

the network

has been recorded since it was first started

asked the question in 1991.

Biden’s campaign rejects the idea that his economic message will be drowned out by his focus on Trump’s character.

Democratic aides are advisors

who have everything, but give up

on

The idea that anyone but Trump will be the Republican nominee argues that the party can make up ground on the economy as the election approaches.

But as Democrats prepare for the election, they expect there will be a referendum on whether Trump will propose

n continuous

they are also beginning to question the threat to the country’s values

or

the long-cherished axiom that economics

is number No. 1. trumps everything else that still holds true.

Even Lake, who spent decades

to poke

about dates is uncertain. It’s totally a question with Donald Trump. What are the new rules? she said.

The 2022 midterm elections are fueling Democratic optimism that this time things will be different. Exit polls latest

That

The past year has shown the democracy and abortion rights Democrats expect

a

top issue

S

helped the party once again outperform historical trends. The Biden campaign has been closely watching an analysis from Catalyst, a Democratic research firm, showing that candidates in high-profile elections who joined Trump in vigorously denying the 2020 election results did 1% to 5% worse than they otherwise would have done.

And while Democrats must compete on the economy, winning the issue does not guarantee victory for either party.

Gallup asked adults which party would keep the country more prosperous since the 1950s. The party that ultimately won the White House took the lead or tied on all but one issue

presidentia

l elections since 1984. The exception was 2000, when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore after an extensive recount, even though Democrats held a

seven

7 points ahead of Republicans on prosperity.

The record is a bit of a travesty if voters were directly asked to choose which specific candidate would best handle the economy. Mitt Romney had a six-point lead over Barack Obama in a 2012 Gallup poll, but Obama ultimately prevailed. Similarly, George W. Bush lagged slightly in this area in 2000 and 2004, but still won both elections.

If this were a traditional presidential race, it would be a referendum on Biden, said Anna Greenberg, a prominent Democratic pollster. Is this a referendum on Bidenomics? Is it a referendum on the way Trump handled the economy when he was president? Probably not.

For Greenberg, this means Biden must resist the temptation most presidents have to delve into the details of their policy record. That will be especially a challenge

to

Biden, who spent much of his career in Congress watching presidents struggle to pass major bills at the pace he has. But Greenberg argues that many voters will not feel the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act,

Biden is his

signed climate bill, by the time they start voting next fall, even if she agrees with the government on the merits.

Trump,

for his part,

would like to focus on the economy. Biden “has started deceiving the American people to cover up his disastrous Bidenomics policies” because he is “being crushed at the polls,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said.

“The fact is that President Trump will be the nominee and will beat Biden because he is the only person who can boost the economy, secure our borders, protect communities and end unnecessary wars,” he said.

Biden must continue to challenge the idea that Trump can handle the economy better, Greenberg and other Democrats say. The issue is the most consistent winner for Trump among nonpartisan and independent voters in focus groups Greenberg has conducted, and is often why voters who are otherwise uncomfortable about Trump cite their support for him.

Biden plans to challenge Trump’s economic plans as part of the broader effort

to create a contrast with the former president,

according to a strategist familiar with the

Biden

Campaign plans. That includes not only touting Biden’s efforts to expand manufacturing, but also touting Trump’s corporate tax cuts as part of an argument that he is out to help the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of the world population.

little middle class boy

.

Recent history suggests that Trump may be vulnerable to such attacks. He hit a low point in the polls in December 2017 after signing a tax cut bill that benefited corporations and high earners. And believe Democrats that he could get hurt in Wisconsin and other key swing states because he’s promoting a more aggressive tariff policy that could

hurt

harm farmers.

But most Democratic analysts believe these policy arguments will take a back seat to big questions about personality, character and fitness for office.

Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat who is co-chair of Biden’s campaign, argues that Biden can bridge the gap between policy and character by viewing Trump’s proposals as outgrowths of his character. He cited Trump’s calls to disband the Justice Department and FBI after they indicted him

are Trumps

recent calls to shut down the government to punish Democrats.

There is already a stark contrast,” Coons said, “between President Biden, his strong record of delivering on things that average American working families care about, and President Trump’s relentless focus on himself and on relitigating the last elections, without worrying about which institutions, which traditions. , which guardrail he breaks through to go after his opponents.

But Coons

he said

continues to hear from concerned Democrats who see polls including an ABC-Washington

after

A postal poll released this weekend showed Trump with a 10-point lead. He assures them that Obama and Ronald Reagan were both seen as vulnerable at similar points in their re-election campaigns, and that Democrats have armies of activists concerned about abortion rights and the environment who will help galvanize voters.

They are Democrats, he said, laughing at the agita

tie

. Look, there are plenty of reasons to worry, worries about a government shutdown, worries about domestic division, worries about our path forward.