The brutal war in Ukraine has shortened the distance across the Atlantic as Washington and Brussels have joined forces in opposing Russia and NATO’s expansion. The global struggle between democracies and autocracies has united Western Europe and America.

Blue America anyway. The candidates leading the pack of Republican presidential candidates tell a very different story in which the struggle between democracies and autocracies is a myth; Ukraine, a sideshow. According to Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, the existential battle for national security is playing out in Mexico and the Western Hemisphere.

If the White House changes hands in 2025, brace yourself for a reset that shifts the focus of our foreign policy from the Atlantic to America.

Republicans are playing to their America First nationalist base, but also capitalizing on a real weakness from the Biden administration. The president has had more success uniting our European allies than responding to the drug or migration crises raging closer to home.

It is not that the government has had bad policies in the western hemisphere. But it has invested far less high-level attention and resources in America than in Europe. And many Americans believe that the foreign policy issues closest to home most directly affect their lives. The Republican candidates know that.

No Americans killed by Russia. Hundreds of thousands killed by Mexico. But Mexico is our ally and Russia is our enemy. How does that work? So former Fox News host Tucker Carlson asked South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, one of the few GOP hopefuls who wholeheartedly supports Ukraine. Carlson was referring to the scourge of fentanyl, largely produced by Mexican cartels, which claimed a record 109,000 Americans last year.

All leading Republican candidates are blaming deadly drugs and blaming Mexico. And they’ve all agreed to attack cartels on Mexican soil, whether the country’s government likes it or not.

That reflects the view of Republican voters, most of whom see immigration, terrorism and drug trafficking as key foreign policy challenges. Fewer than 1 in 5 Republicans put the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the same category.

A new foreign policy led by the GOP would go beyond Mexican drugs by focusing on Americas First. The Republican frontrunners have called for the revival of Trump-era safe deals with third countries, using US power to pressure South and Central American countries to take in migrants who cannot cross the border reaches. Tightening sanctions against the nominally socialist dictatorships of Cuba and Venezuela, always a priority for an influential subgroup of Republican voters in South Florida, is also high on Trump’s and DeSantis’ agenda, regardless of the fact that Trump’s maximum pressure strategy tyrannical regime of Venezuela even more entrenched.

For his part, Biden made big promises during the campaign trail about addressing the root causes of migration from Central America, pursuing a more effective approach to Venezuela’s stubborn autocrat, and helping to bring about democracy in America. But the factors driving migration in Central America have not changed much, Nicols Maduro is still firmly in control and many democracies in the region are struggling.

I struggled to see what this government is doing in Latin America that has any problem, a disgruntled senator said last month. Remarkably, it was an ally of Biden, Virginia Democrat Tim Kaine.

Crises in Afghanistan and Ukraine understandably forced the government to leave Latin America. The problem is that it was never pushed back. The government’s well-intentioned economic agenda for the region, announced last year, has yet to take off, and COVID-ravaged Latin American economies are receiving relatively little US aid.

True, the administration can claim achievements in America. Her quiet diplomacy helped secure a democratic exit from 10 years of quasi-authoritarian rule in Honduras and thwarted election deniers in Brazil and Guatemala. The government also brokered the Los Angeles Declaration, a regional effort to control migration.

But the Biden administration’s policies still look like short-term crisis management, often with only one goal: to reduce migration. The inattention shows. Biden has made 14 international trips to 21 countries as president, but has only been in Latin America for about 48 hours once.

That’s not to say that the Republicans’ proposals will effectively address the crises in the Western Hemisphere. In many ways they would bring disaster.

Mexico, America’s main trading partner, flatly rejects the idea of ​​a US counter-terrorism operation on its territory. Such an intervention could strain bilateral ties at enormous economic costs for ordinary Americans.

And no amount of deterrence, however brutal, will be able to stop the migration. It will only make the road to the United States longer and more lucrative for criminals and profiteers who take advantage of migrants. Nor will bullying align Latin American governments with Washington. Though you wouldn’t know it from the stupid speeches of the Republican candidates, the United States is no longer the all-powerful hegemony of the hemisphere.

That said, it seems that the xenophobic America First mob ironically has more friends than Biden among Latin America’s leaders. Florida Senator Marco Rubio recently rubbed elbows with El Salvador’s iron fist president, Nayib Bukele. Members of Trump’s inner circle forged a bond with former Brazilian President Jar Bolsonaro. And Trump’s first indictment led a chorus of Latin American presidents to claim that Biden is politicizing law enforcement. The GOP may be laughed out of the room in Brussels, but the capitals of Latin America have plenty of politicians who share its economic nationalistic, socially conservative impulses.

Democrats and Republicans increasingly live in different worlds, so perhaps it’s not surprising that they have such divergent foreign policies. But adopting a degree of Republican focus on Latin America, if not their ideas, could boost

the Biden administration

fortunes below

voters who think America’s biggest foreign policy concerns lie close to home Will Freeman is a fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.