Then Secretary of State Antony

J

Blinken went to Beijing last week

6/19

to try to mend the frayed relationship between the United States and China, both sides kept expectations low.

For months, the two superpowers have clashed over a wide variety of issues: the

supposedly

Chinese spy balloon that drifted across the United States in February, US efforts to block China from advanced semiconductor technology, and military near misses at sea and in the air.

Both countries agreed to prevent the rivalry from turning into open conflict and to build a deepening under the relationship, which is exactly what President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping said they had done eight months ago at a summit meeting. That floor didn’t stay built hence last week’s call for a repairman.

By that modest standard, blinking succeeded. The floor has been patched up, but it’s still pretty shaky.

The State Secretary asked for more frequent consultations, and that was what he got. But he also called for direct exchanges between the military leaders of the two countries, a priority he called hugely important

other

the Chinese flatly rejected that. And Xi deferred action on a request that should have been even simpler

:

to curb Chinese-made chemicals that aid in the production of the deadly drug fentanyl.

It’s good that they recognize that they need to talk when the relationship is about to get into dangerous territory, says Bates Gill, a China expert at the Asia Society in New York. But talking is still very difficult.

The drive for peaceful coexistence still seems prone to accidents. Just a day after Blinken left Beijing, Biden made a brief splash when he told donors that Xi knew nothing about the

supposedly

spy balloon, which he called a great embarrassment [a] dictator A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the remark absurd and irresponsible.

The underlying problem, deeper than any Biden blunder, is that not only do the two countries have different goals; they view the world from different points of view.

According to Xi, China is moving towards its rightful role as the dominant country in Asia and the leading economic power in the world, while the United States is a country in decline.

U.S. officials understandably don’t believe that narrative. They rightly argue that China has bullied its smaller neighbours,

stolen steal w

ester technology and

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in unfair commercial practices.

Even when they try to bridge those differences, the two governments often manage to talk past each other.

When Biden entered the White House in 2021, his aides tried to devise a useful, perhaps innocuous framework for their approach to China. As Blinken put it: Compete with confidence, collaborate when possible and confront when necessary.

The Chinese hated it.

They view competition as meaning there is a winner and a loser, Gil said. They think our version of competition is about winning against America and losing against China.

Aside from those differences, several major disagreements between the two countries are likely to be unresolvable for the foreseeable future.

China believes it has an inalienable right to take over Taiwan; the United States has long been committed to helping the independent island defend itself.

Xi’s economic ambitions aim to turn China into a high-tech behemoth; Biden believes that US security should block Beijing from advanced semiconductor technology.

Now add the success of the Biden government in forging alliances with other countries, including India, whose prime minister, Narendra Modi, was celebrated at the White House last week

and the European Union, even though it is China’s largest economic partner.

Xi’s regime has not been very successful at making friends. China’s only real allies are Russia and North Korea.

Everything of

this that

factors make it difficult to find room for US-China cooperation, even though it should be relatively easy.

For example, Blinken’s request for military contacts to prevent accidental conflict fell on deaf ears because the Chinese fear it is a trap.

They don’t want to approach the issue from an international law standpoint because that could give us the right to fly or sail where they don’t want us, said Bonnie Glaser of Germany’s Marshall Fund. If it became safe for us to operate these flights, they would see it as a victory for us.

The clearest outcome of Blinken’s trip will be a visit to Washington by Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and, with any luck, a meeting between Biden and Xi in San Francisco this fall.

But their agenda will be known: reduce the chance of conflict between the US and China by repairing the same shaky floorboards over and over again.