Democrats hope to seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives next year at a critical time for policy decisions on reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights, education and the economy that may depend on Southern California.

Despite the state’s liberal leanings, California has the most competitive congressional races in the country and an anomaly created by the state’s independent map-drawing process.

pure

mate.

We could be decisive. We could definitely be critical, said Darry Sragow, a veteran Democratic strategist who is the publisher of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which tracks the state’s congressional and legislative races. There are some districts that are able to go one way or the other and they will be hard fought and they will be expensive and they will matter.

The Democrats need to win five of the 435 seats in the House

currently

held by Republicans next year to take back control of Congress. And they see many of their best opportunities in California.

The three or four Southern California seats in play could be the deciding factor in who controls Congress in 2024, 100%, said Paul Mitchell, an expert on Democratic redistribution. That could ultimately be more than enough to give the Democrats a majority in Congress.

In the rest of the country, so many districts are so polarized, so partisan, drawn to make sure a Republican or a Democrat will win, he noted. Our districts are less polarized, they’re more swingy, making them more valuable in the congressional scrutiny issue.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has tracked House and Senate races for decades, rates nine of the state’s 52 congressional districts as competitive, the most of any state in the country.

Most are in parts of California that voted for President Biden, yet elected GOP congressional districts that support both parties

to consider

major battlefields in 2024. While a few are in the Central Valley, the majority are in Southern California.

These are bright blue districts in which we have to play. We need the candidates who can message, knock on doors and generate voter enthusiasm and who can cast those votes, said Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus.

Sragow attributes California’s number of competitive congressional seats to the state’s independent map-drawing process for political boundaries, including congressional districts, approved by voters in 2010 to replace the traditional partisan maps previously created by lawmakers. Most congressional districts across the country are still determined by state legislators who often try

Unpleasant

adjust the cards to their political advantage if they hold power in their legislatures.

There aren’t that many competitive seats anymore. There has been an incredible shift across much of the country to gerrymandered congressional districts where the outcome is predetermined, Sragow said. There just isn’t much swing. So if you want to pick up chairs, you can do it in California.

This is one of the really few competitive playing fields for home seats, he said.

But Democrats are puzzled by many of the contests.

One of the most competitive races in the country is an Orange County district being vacated by Representative Katie Porter, who is running to replace outgoing U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Porter, a prodigious fundraiser, spent nearly $29 million last year narrowly holding on to his seat against former GOP Councilman Scott Baugh.

In this election, the Republican is expected to receive stronger financial support and his Democratic rivals lack Porter’s ability to raise money. The race was further scrambled when the candidate supporting Porter, Senator Dave Min, was arrested

on suspicion of

drunk driving in Sacramento. Joanna Weiss, a lawyer like Porter, also runs for the seat and has the support of former Representative Harley Rouda, who planned to run for the seat until he suffered a brain injury.

North of the Porters district, Democrats have long drooled in vain over the region represented by GOP Representative Mike Garcia, which includes Santa Clarita, the Antelope Valley, and part of the San Fernando Valley. The once solid Republican stronghold has become more Democratic as Los Angeles residents moved there in search of affordable housing.

The district should be a solid opportunity for the Democrats, but they have failed miserably three elections in a row. Strategists say a lack of investment by national Democrats was caused by both the cost of

politics

advertisements in Los Angeles, one of the most expensive media markets in the country, and a lack of faith in Garcia’s Democratic rival in the contests, Christy Smith. The former councilor slammed her party for not supporting her in last year’s election.

Former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides and Francisco Carrillo, who was wrongfully convicted of murder and served 20 years in prison before being released, Democrats are now challenging Garcia.

GOP Representative Michelle Steel, who represents a district spanning Los Angeles and Orange counties with many Asian-American voters, could also face a challenging re-election bid. Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, a Democrat, announced her candidacy to represent the district home to many Vietnamese-American voters.

In Riverside County, veteran

GOP

Representative Ken Calvert

(R-Corona)

want to

probably probably

compete against former federal prosecutor Will Rollins in a competitive race. The redrawing of neighborhood lines resulted in the inclusion of a large number

liberal and

Gay voters in the Palm Springs area. Rollins is gay and regularly campaigns with his husband; Calvert has a history of voting against LGBTQ+ interests and his allies defeated a Democratic rival in a 1994 campaign. Calvert, who said his views on gay rights have evolved and that he now supports same-sex marriage, defeated Rollins by less than

five 5

points last year, a result that may prompt national Democrats to invest in the race.

Other potentially competitive seats are those of representatives. Mike Levin

in San Diego County (D-San Juan Capistrano)

and John Duarte

(R-Modesto)

David Valadao

(R-Hanford)

and Josh Harder

(D Turlock)

in the Central Valley.

Democrats are optimistic about their chances of protecting Levin and Harder and ousting Garcia, Steel, Valadao, Duarte and Calvert because 2024 is a presidential election year, a time when voter turnout is higher and young and minority voters support their party , traditionally more likely to cast votes.

But GOP leaders countered that they’ve bucked this trend in congressional contests in recent years.

In 2016 we did not lose a single race. In 2020, we took four seats, said Jessica Millan Patterson, chairman of the Republican State Party. We won in seats Biden won by 10 points.

And Democrats agreed that even if they flipped these districts next year, they could be in play next election cycle.

These seats will help determine who controls the House for the remainder of the decade, Mitchell said.