For a brief moment last week, it was possible to imagine that President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) had found some common ground in their standoff over the federal debt ceiling.

Would come together

,

Because there is no alternative, Biden predicted.

It’s not that hard to come to an agreement, McCarthy ventured.

But by Friday, their differences didn’t seem so easy to bridge.

McCarthy’s chief negotiator briefly suspended talks, saying Biden’s aides were not being reasonable.

We decided to press

‘

Pause,

‘

because it’s just not productive, Rep. Garret Graves (RL

a

.) told reporters.

The White House issued a sharp statement accusing Republicans of recycling a barely watered-down

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version of their extreme budget proposal.”

Financial markets, buoyed by hopes of an early deal, went down.

So much for the irrational optimism.

Talks must now continue in that unpromising spirit to the brink of unprecedented federal bankruptcy, and perhaps beyond.

Despite the raging deadlock, it has never been impossible to discern where a middle ground solution to the battle over federal spending might lie.

Republicans are demanding major cuts to domestic programs, new job requirements for federal poor people’s benefits, lighter regulation of oil and gas drilling and the withdrawal of Biden’s ambitious green energy program.

Biden and his aides agreed to negotiate most of those items, at least on the fringes.

But the two sides remained far apart on the core issue of federal spending. McCarthy wanted to cut domestic spending by $100 billion next year and then keep growth below inflation for the next 10 years. Democrats said such deep cuts would cut domestic programs by 22% or more, which they didn’t think was reasonable.

The answer is not as simple as dividing the difference. get political

S

in the way.

the hard

–

line House Freedom Caucus says it is not considering GOP demands

–

negotiable, and

has

urged McCarthy to refuse to make any concessions. The speaker needs the support of the Freedom Caucus to keep his job, and his ability to deliver votes for a compromise that no one will like has been untested.

Biden is more confident on that score. He has led his parties’ internal debates for half a century, including in similar debt ceiling negotiations in 2011 and 2013.

But he too is confronted with an incipient rebellion. Progressive Democrats have threatened to revolt if the president agrees to impose new job requirements on benefit programs like Medicaid or food stamps.

Like the Freedom Caucus, many of the progressives say they don’t think their side should be negotiating at all.

The president initially agreed with them. He said he wouldn’t negotiate

raise

the debt ceiling

to pay the bills of the federal government,

and accused Republicans of holding the economy hostage. But after several weeks, he blinked and agreed to negotiate.

Practically, he had little choice

; : H

it is running for re-election. Voters tend to blame the incumbent president for a weak economy, whether he deserves it or not. When the debt ceiling is a mess

pushes pushes

the economy in recession, Biden’s chances of keeping his job

will would

chubby.

It did not go unnoticed by White House aides when former President Trump, who hopes to run against Biden in next year’s election, urged his supporters in Congress to embrace the risk of bankruptcy.

Republicans shouldn’t make a deal on the debt ceiling unless they get everything they want, he said in a social media post.

Meanwhile, Biden’s allegation of GOP hostage-taking didn’t seem to affect public opinion much.

Polls show that most voters fear the consequences of a default, but

that they

also agree with Republicans that the debt ceiling should be used to rein in federal spending.

As for which side deserves the blame for the standoff, many voters point to both sides. There is no evidence that Republicans pay a significant price for hostage-taking.

Yet both sides are already accusing

the elk

other responsibility for possible calamities. One side has called it a Biden

i.e

standard, the other a Republican

i.e

standard.

Even if Biden and McCarthy compromise, it seems unlikely that either house of Congress will pass it without drama or delay.

The Treasury says the government could run out of money on June 1, just over a week away. Goldman Sachs says the real deadline is likely closer to June 8

week later few days more

.

Biden says he is still optimistic.

I still believe I can avoid a default and do something decent, he said in Tokyo on Saturday before returning to Washington for last-minute negotiations.

For example, fiscal deadlocks were resolved in 2011 and 2013, when then-Vice President Biden struck deals with the Republican Senate.

I

leader Mitch McConnell. What we don’t know is whether those old rules still apply in the more polarized Washington of 2023.