Fewer migrants cross the southern US border, and the doomsday scenarios many politicians feared would follow the expiry of the pandemic-era restrictions known as Title 42

has had

yet to arrive.

The reasons for the drop in border crossings are still unclear and the trend is still in its infancy, but interviews with migrants offer some possible explanations.

Many migrants en route to the US, aware of the risks of entering the US after the end of Title 42, including potential deportation and possible five-year ban from entering the United States, are playing a wait and see game in Mexican border towns.

Cleven Ismael Peraza, a 26-year-old Venezuelan, hopes to enter the United States. Peraza, one of more than 3,000 migrants camped along the Rio Grande in Matamoros, said he was previously turned back after crossing while Title 42 was in effect in May.

We hear a lot of rumors about that

S

there is an endless line to get in, some people get in, some people get deported. We really don’t know exactly what’s going on. At this point, it seems best to wait, he said

on

Tuesday.

m

immigrants

know that the rules are different now and that they can reject our applications for political asylum,

Peraza added.

Peraza said he will continue to try to use the problematic CBP One

application and hope to make an appointment at the port of entry and apply for asylum from there.

The US government has encouraged migrants to seek appointments through the app, rather than crossing without permission.

Yes, we’re scared. We had a dream to come here and start a new life. Now we are stuck here, he added.

The Biden administration revealed on Wednesday that the drop in border encounters had continued early this week: Border agents encountered less than 4,000 on Monday and Tuesday

people

on the southern border

every day

according to Blas Nuez-Neto, a clue

Department of Homeland Security HS

officially. Since

May 12, Friday,

the first full day untitled 42, border agents encountered an average of 4,400 migrants

per day

explained.

That’s a far cry from the more than 10,000 crossings a day early last week and far short of the Department of Homeland Security’s projections of 12,000 to 14,000 daily encounters after the end of Title 42.

Nuez-Neto noted that regional governments, including those of Mexico and Guatemala, had deployed law enforcement and military personnel to

Police

their southern borders. Hey said

US officials

continued to see encouraging signs that the measures we have taken are working, but stressed that it was still too early to definitively predict what would happen next.

Migration experts and government officials who spoke to The Times agreed it was too early to draw definitive conclusions, but

suggested several

possible explanations

for the decline

.

I think it’s a combination of two things. First, migrants seem to have gotten the message the policy is posting

–

Title 42 was going to be harder than Title 42, so rushed in before Thursday night, said Julia Gelatt, a senior analyst at the Migration Policy Institute. Second, there is a lot of confusion about what the police do

i

There are, and people may be waiting to see how other migrants are doing before attempting to cross.

The Biden administration has

worked hard to spread the idea that crossing the border without permission can lead to serious consequences

. A new policy from the Biden administration restricts access to asylum for those who enter the US but have not applied for protection en route to the border.

DHS Department of Homeland Security

Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and other Biden administration officials have repeatedly said the administration would

to punish

those who cross the southern border without permission.

Don’t believe the lies of smugglers, Mayorkas said in a statement to migrants last week. The border is not open. People who do not use available legal routes to enter the US now face harsher consequences, including a minimum five-year ban on return and potential criminal charges.

In a tweet Tuesday, the Twitter account of the US Customs and Border Protection displayed an image of migrants being put on a plane

S

and buses.

This weekend, Venezuelan migrants were transported from Reynosa to the interior of Mexico by Mexican authorities. There are long-term consequences of entering the US without permission under Title 8, including removal from the US, including impediments to future immigration benefits, the tweet read.

Nuez-Neto told reporters Wednesday that Venezuelan, Cuban

,

and Nicaraguan migrants were returned to Mexico.

Border officials had noticed a change, he said. Since title 42 expired, about 1,000 migrants from Mexico, 510 from Colombia

,

and 470 from Guatemala

have tried to cross each day

. In the days before the end of Title 42, about 2,400 migrants arrived from Venezuela, 1,900 from Mexico

,

and 1,400 from Colombia

attempted crossing per day

.

Caitlyn Yates, a fellow at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law

WHO

has been living in Tijuana for a few months, said that

here

Conversations with migrants in the area revealed that many were waiting in Mexico, trying to better understand U’s future

.

S

.

border policy.

Yates said some migrants are waiting to see if they can get a place using the CBP app. She added that many migrants, especially those from the

v

esters

hh

emisphere, have heard the reports of deportations and restrictions on asylum, along with the potential for a five-year travel ban.

Yates said deterrence messages had worked in the short term, but she didn’t know if they will continue to do so. Migrants’ ability to secure appointments on the app will also influence the decision to cross, she added.

The administration has

So

advertised new legal

roads for migrants

to enter the US Those programs include one in which migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela

,

and Haiti can apply to fly to the US

.

if they have a financial sponsor and can pass background checks.

However, the future of the government’s policy remains uncertain. The program that allows migrants to apply for legal entry into the US is being challenged in a federal court in Texas. the

American Civil Liberties UnionACLU

recently sued the Biden administration over its asylum restrictions, saying they were illegal and resembled Trump-era policies.

But within government

officials have stated

some relief at the recent numbers, someone said

Department of Homeland SecurityDHS

official who spoke to The Times on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly.

There is certainly the view that our messages are working, the official said. The deterrent message is working, so we need to keep pushing to show that people are being removed through this process, the official said of the opinion internally. People are afraid that if there are no proven consequences, the numbers will rise again.

The official was cautious that the numbers would hold and said it was too early to say the long term

has consequences

of the policy.

Have warnings from the US government

caused some migrants to take a cautious approach.

On the morning after Title 42 expired, Alexandre Jean Verneau

decided not to surrender to US border patrol, even though the Haitian man, 26,

had spent the previous four nights sleeping along the El Paso border strip, planning to surrender himself.

But with the end of Title 42, Verneau refused to turn himself in along with hundreds of others

s from

migrants who had also been waiting for days in a strip of no man’s land on American soil along the Rio Grande.

He The 26-year-old Haitian

feared it was a ruse and that he could be sent back to Haiti, he said.

Since then, Verneau has found work in construction in Ciudad Jurez. He says he plans to wait in the border town until he can make an appointment through CBP One. Like so many others, he fears that entering illegally could now lead to deportation and other legal problems.

I tried and tried day and night, but I was unable to upload the application, Verneau said Tuesday. I don’t have a date for an appointment yet. I don’t know when I’ll have one… But I want to get out of here now. I want to go to the United States.

He rents a room in a house in Ciudad Jurez.

For now, Verneau plans to stay in Jurez until he can get an appointment.

Contributors were special correspondents Gabriela Minjares in Ciudad Jurez, Mexico, and Juan Jos Ramrez in Matamoros, Mexico, who contributed to this report.