Analysis: ‘Love fest’ for Zelensky in Europe shows concerns about US presidential race in 2024

(Matthias Schrader/Associated Press)

Analysis: ‘Love fest’ for Zelensky in Europe shows concerns about US presidential race in 2024

Ukraine

Laura King

May 15, 2023

It was a joke, but a telling one.

Standing next to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the midst of a whirlwind tour of Western European capitals, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Berlin was Ukraine’s second largest provider of general aid, surpassed only by Washington.

I think we were going to work for Germany supporter No. 1, he said, with Scholz smiling along with him.

The seemingly light-hearted exchange during Zelensky’s visit to Germany on Sunday, one of a quick three-day succession of layovers that also took him to Italy, France and Britain on Monday, countered a sense of stark urgency as Russia’s war against Ukraine begins. a potentially crucial stage.

Ukraine’s pursuit of arms and political support from its allies, a near-constant quest since the full-scale Russian invasion of February 2022, has been increasingly overshadowed by concerns about a hitherto unthinkable scenario in which the United States ceases to be Ukraine’s main patron. would be. .

To some extent, it shows that there is uncertainty in Europe about the next US election, said Liana Fix, a Europe fellow at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Europe wants to show that it will continue to help, even if there is a change in US policy, to make it clear that this war is existential for both Europeans and Ukraine.

While it is recognized in European capitals that it is still early days in the US presidential contest, former President Trump’s recent refusal to express hope for a Ukrainian victory caused a stark contrast to President Biden’s full support, including a visit to Kiev in February. of nervousness across the continent.

Berlin is preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump could defeat Joe Biden in the next election, the Der Spiegel newsmagazine wrote last month, adding that such an outcome could spell disaster for Ukraine and for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

As Europe’s economic heavyweight, Germany previously had a fraught and sometimes frosty relationship with Zelensky about how much support it would provide in wartime.

The weekend visit, Ukraine’s leaders the first to Berlin since the invasion, marked what was widely regarded as a clear reset, with Sholz’s government unveiling its largest military aid package worth nearly $3 billion on the eve of the two’s meeting. leaders.

Just over a year earlier, Ukrainian disapproval derailed a visit to Kiev by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier over his former warm relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a disapproving remark Scholz described as irritating. And Germany’s earlier grueling supply of heavy weapons lasted a month

long source of voltage.

It was a very different tone Sunday at the joint press conference in Berlin where

regarding

Zelensky cited the help of friends like Germany to make a Russian defeat irreversible this year.

Zelensky’s unannounced stop in France on Sunday night led to a more subtle dissection of his ties to the government of French President Emmanuel Macron.

The French leader had previously upset officials in Kiev by repeatedly suggesting that it would be reasonable to negotiate with Putin. But on Sunday, after a three-hour dinner meeting, Macron and Zelensky said in a joint statement that France had offered training and promised to provide armored vehicles and light tanks for several Ukrainian battalions.

In Britain, another unannounced stop, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hugged Zelensky in a warm embrace after the Ukrainian leader arrived by helicopter at Checkers, the prime minister’s official retreat outside London.

Sunak, who has emerged as a staunch supporter of Ukraine in his relatively short tenure, said Britain would provide hundreds of additional air defense missiles, as well as drones for long-range strikes.

That was on top of an announcement last week that Britain had already supplied Ukraine with advanced Storm shadow cruise missiles, with a range of more than 150 miles, the first known delivery of its kind from a Western partner.

Germany’s new aid package includes an additional 30 Leopard-1 tanks, Marder armored vehicles, air defense systems and surveillance drones. But instead of portraying the new tranche of aid as supporting a Ukrainian counter-offensive that could begin almost any moment, Germany signaled that it was intended to demonstrate long-term commitment.

We all hope for a quick end to Russia’s terrible war against the Ukrainian people, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in a statement Saturday when the aid was announced. But unfortunately this is not in sight. That is why Germany will provide all the help it can for as long as it takes.

For Ukraine, presenting major new European pledges is a way to allay concerns that Moscow will likely try to amplify about the US political climate that may hinder future major pledges, analysts said.

If I were

it

[Zelensky]I would like clearly articulated European support in the run-up

until the US election, said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a scholar at Germany’s Marshall Fund in Berlin.

But Zelensky certainly didn’t get away with everything on his wish list as his country prepares for the upcoming counter-offensive against Russian forces and, in fact, much of the new aid pledged will not come through the pipeline until that military advance begins in earnest.

Ukraine has long said that Western fighter jets are perhaps the most urgent need, but even Britain has failed to make unequivocal promises on that point. Sunak promised immediate assistance in training Ukrainian pilots to use advanced Western fighter jets, but told reporters that building fighter jets for Kiev is not easy.

Advanced fighter jets have been a major stumbling block for Western partners concerned about creating the appearance of NATO countries engaging in a direct confrontation with Russia.

This European tour in what may be the last period for Zelensky to be absent from his capital for extended periods has also generated little movement in Kiev’s oft-repeated calls for

the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

to invite Ukraine to join.

It is time to remove the greatest security uncertainty in Europe, that is, to make a positive political decision about our NATO membership, Zelensky said in a pre.

Recorded video for the summit on democracy in Copenhagen on Monday.

But during his appearance in Berlin with the Ukrainian leader, Scholz sidestepped the subject, and public support for bringing Ukraine into the NATO fold has thus far been limited to countries on the eastern fringe of the alliance.

After the unusual love fest of this European tour, that’s the next friction to come, Kleine-Brockhoff said.

Speaking in Copenhagen on Monday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that while expecting a multi

During the years-long process of helping Ukraine lay the groundwork for an entry attempt, there is little meaningful discussion of Ukraine joining unless it succeeds in remaining a sovereign independent nation in Europe.

As Zelensky finalized his appeals, Ukraine claimed some progress on Monday in one of the bloodiest battles of the war, in the eastern city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi told the Telegram messaging app that the advance, while limited,

It

proved that even under the most “extremely difficult circumstances” Ukraine showed its determination to prevail.

“We fight with fewer resources than the enemy,” he wrote. “At the same time, we are able to thwart his plans.”

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