Two televised events in the past 10 days, a raucous Donald Trump rally heralded as a CNN town hall, and a much quieter interview with President Biden on MSNBC offer a sobering preview of the 2024 presidential campaign.

It won’t be pretty. It may not be inspiring. And it will mainly be about which candidate you like less.

On CNN

May 10th

Trump reiterated his false claim that the 2020 election had been tampered with, he praised the rioters who

US

Capitol on January 6, 2021

,

and laughed at the woman who had won a lawsuit against him for sexual abuse.

On msnbc

5th of May

Biden rambled through muddled answers about infrastructure spending and the debt ceiling, saying he’s doing his best on immigration and defining what was at stake.

in 2024

for stopping Trump from returning to the White House, even though he couldn’t bring himself to speak his opponent’s name.

We cannot let this election be one where the same man who was president four years ago becomes president again, he said.

Eighteen months before Election Day, it’s foolish to try to predict the outcome, except for this: either candidate

could be

win, and the results will probably be close.

In the last two elections, a shift of less than 1% in three or four states would have changed the national result.

Events, especially what happens to the economy, will determine the outcome.

Biden began his tenure as a very popular president, but unexpected events, a resurgence of COVID-19, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and rising inflation have brought him down.

The president defends his track record on the economy by pointing to strong job creation, low unemployment and inflation slowly fading to about 5%. But prices remain higher than before, and voters are noticing that.

When the economy picks up and inflation falls, Biden can breathe

easier easier

. If inflation picks up and the economy slides into recession, its problems will get worse.

The other uncontrollable event is the inexorable aging process: Biden is 80, Trump 76.

Whatever else he’s accomplished on CNN, Trump has shown that he hasn’t changed much or apparently aged much since 2016, when he was 70.

But Biden looks and sounds his age, and voters have noticed. A Washington Post/ABC News poll this month reported that only 32% of Americans believe they remain mentally sharp enough for the job, compared to 54%

who thinks for

Trump

do

.

It took the president three tries to give a solid answer to the now-breakout age issue. His first reaction was denial: I can’t even say the number, he said last month. His second was a joke: I call it being seasoned.

On MSNBC, he finally tackled the head of the problem

–

on. I have gained an awful lot of wisdom, he said. I have more experience than anyone who has ever run for the office, and I think I’ve proven myself to be both honorable and effective.

Expect to hear that chorus over the next 18 months.

As long as Biden stays sane, the competition with Trump may not be too punitive. But if a younger Republican surprises and wins the GOP nomination, the president could be in more trouble.

Trump could

So

are indicated

in connection with

his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and

his storage of refusing to surrender

classified documents

stored

at Mar-a

–

Lago. But it’s not clear what the impact would be. His recent indictment by a New York prosecutor for hush money payments to a porn star led some voters to rally behind him.

If Biden and Trump are the nominees as expected, it’s tempting to call their matchup a 2020 repeat, but it’s different in one important respect.

The 2020 election was a referendum on Trump’s presidency. This time Biden is the incumbent, and Trump will want to make the election a referendum on his own

successors

economic record.

The president would understandably prefer a 2020 repeat, so he’s reminding Americans why they rejected Trump at the time.

So the campaign is likely to be a double referendum: a battle that candidate voters resent even more.

If that’s the game, Biden may have an edge. Even though his approval rate is around the dismal 42%

,

a level at which no previous incumbent has won re-election

,

Trump is even less popular.

in a

nNBC News

P

o last month

found that while

48% of voters said they have a negative view of Biden,

while

53% said they have a negative view of Trump.

Trump’s appearance on CNN may not have helped him on that score.

The former president doubled down on divisive positions in a way that could bolster his lead for the GOP nomination but alienate independent voters.

He said he would likely pardon January 6 rioters convicted of crimes for storming the Capitol. He suggested that the Republicans in Congress enforce a national debt, which could lead to a financial crash. And he said he would separate migrant children from their parents at the border, a policy he ended as president in response to public disgust.

Trump’s words on CNN made it clear just how high the stakes will be.

Almost every presidential election is described as the most important of our lives. That was more than usual in 2016 and 2020.

It will be like this again in 2024.