House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has been showing off for two weeks since teasing his slim majority of Republicans in the House to (barely) pass a bill to raise the debt limit, supposedly strengthening his hand for negotiations with President Biden and Senate Democrats calling for a first… ever standard.

McCarthy should enjoy his victory march for now. Because that strut is about to be a slog and

,

eventually a kind of surrender. At stake is the job he fought so hard for and sold his soul for.

We lifted the debt limit. We sent it to the Senate. We did our job, McCarthy crowed after the 217-215 vote. Note to the speaker: You did not lift the debt limit, not without Senate approval and Biden’s signature, and you will not get either of those on this bill.

So no, your work is not done. To get the job done, you will have

being capable of

compromise with the Democrats.

And that’s McCarthy’s predicament. The handcuffs that House Republicans have put on the speaker will make it nearly impossible for him to sign a compromise.

First, remember that all the fighting that is going on is simply to get enough Republicans to help prevent economic catastrophe by raising the debt limit so that the nation can continue to pay for

past

expenses that presidents and congresses of both parties have earned for years. In other words, to get Republicans to take an action that should be bipartisan. And non-negotiable, as Biden says. When Trump was president, the Republicans joined the Democrats three times in raising the debt limit without drama.

The House passed McCarthy’s debt ceiling bill last month after he gave in for days to the demands of the most radicalized Republican caucus in history, whose far-right members are the real powerhouses in Kevin’s House.

The bill would cut domestic programs across the board (the cuts are unspecified; such gory details would be cost-supportive) and tighten job requirements for food stamps and Medicaid. It would also revoke Biden’s historic clean energy initiatives

but and

expand fossil fuel production.

Moreover, it

would

raise the debt limit only next year, mount the next showdown during the presidential campaign, what could go wrong?

.

In other words, it is a radical bill. And even with his giveaways, McCarthy lost four right-wing votes; two more and he would have failed. And yet more Republicans will join the naysayers to any deal McCarthy might make with Biden and the Senate. Some have already said it, but make sure that the speaker cannot pass blame

–

limit increase that will actually become law and not just a political statement.

A hardliner told Politico that McCarthy promised he would oppose any compromise that omits the right-wing provisions. That’s crazy. It contradicts the definition of compromise give and take.

Speaking of irony, McCarthy sold the debt

–

limiting the bill by convincing holdouts it would give him leverage in negotiations with Democrats, telegraphing Republican unity behind massive budget cuts. But if McCarthy can’t change the House bill, he has virtually no influence on the talks.

That’s what makes these debts

–

Limit negotiations more fruitful than any in memory. Democrats know that McCarthy is not a negotiating partner who can provide the votes for a deal, held hostage by the radicals in his caucus.

McCarthy’s negotiating position is: take our plan, or the nation defaults.” That’s not negotiating;

,

it is a foothold

–

Even worse, fiscal terrorism.

As for Biden’s stance on not negotiating the debt limit, he’s right in principle. But in practice, his position is anything but meaningless in a divided Congress. And politically, it’s a hard sell.

Neither he nor the Democrats in Congress have been clear enough that they

Are

willing to negotiate annual deficit reduction, but regardless of the debt limit. The distinction is lost on many voters. To Echelon Insights bearing found that three-quarters of voters want Biden to negotiate raising the debt ceiling. Also, the Democrats have their own internal divisions, and a growing number are calling for Biden to gain ground.

Former President Trump stoked, no surprise, the

already

dangerous dynamics on Wednesday at CNN’s thoughtless town hall with him. He said he told the Republicans that unless they demand massive cuts from the Democrats, you’re going to have to default. (When asked why he flip-flopped since he was president and opposed debt-limit negotiations, Trump responded with the kind honesty about his hypocrisy fans love quipped, “Because I’m not president now.)

His standard comment That exchange

must have deflated McCarthy’s bloated chest. The speaker needed to know that Trump, the real leader of the House right, was making it

the

already rocky path to some sort of deal so much

rougher.harder.

Another key point for the speaker: In recent years, voters have tended to blame Republicans more than Democrats after debt and budget clashes.

McCarthy will have to lead the House in approving a compromise or

otherwise

get out of the way and let a majority coalition of Democrats and responsible Republicans do it. Either approach could spell the end of his speakership in a House where only one member can force a vote to remove him from office at any time.

Keep walking, mister speaker, while you still can.

@jackiekcalmes