Last week, a Wall Street Journal poll reported that former President Trump ha

i.e

opened up a wide lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the burgeoning battle for the Republican presidential nomination.

In a two-candidate matchup, Trump drew 51%, compared to 38% for DeSantis.

That was one of many polls that suggested Trump is firmly at the top of the GOP race right now.

Still, other potential candidates have emerged each week this month in Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping to find conservative donors and voters craving alternatives.

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie stunned New Hampshire last week and told GOP voters he is the kind of candidate they need.

The week before, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina announced that he was forming

a campaign

exploratory committee, a formal step towards candidacy.

And the governor of New Hampshire. Chris Sununu, a leading GOP moderate, used a CNN appearance to muse about his future. I think I could do the job, he said

of the presidency

.

Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has formally announced her candidacy. So has the former governor of Arkansas. Asa Hutchinson. Former Vice President Mike Pence is also expected to step in.

That’s seven

realistic

Trump’s potential challengers, and it’s only April.

[No, Im not going to mention Larry Elder.] Note from AW: I agree we should leave him off; I wouldn’t call him a real ‘challenger’.

If the race is already locked, why do so many otherwise sensitive politicians volunteer to go head-to-head with a former president who will subject them to a

circular saw

of insults?

Simple: In their opinion, this race may be more open than it seems.

Trump is clearly the favorite, but he can be beaten, Republican strategist Alex Conant said. He can be beaten because the race is not static. Today’s polls are not what they will be six months from now.

GOP researcher Whit Ayres agreed, pointing to evidence that primary voters are open to other candidates.

In focus groups, he said, he’s met people who voted for Trump, who liked what he did as president, but they don’t think Trump can win this time. They want someone with a different temperament.

Ayres estimates that about a third of Republicans are staunch “Always Trump” loyalists.

But a larger portion of GOP voters, about 60%, are people who voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 but are willing to consider alternatives, a group he calls Maybe Trump.

They represent a potential majority in the Republican primary, making them key to the nomination.

Polls show Ayres is right.

For example, in last week’s Wall Street Journal poll, Trump was the choice of 51% of Republican voters when tested against DeSantis, but only 29% said they would definitely stick with the former president.

Other polls also suggest that the ranks of Trump loyalists have eroded.

in a

n Associated Press-NORC research this month

,

37% of Republican voters said they have a very positive view of Trump, down from 47% in July 2021.

The challengers’ pitch to voters is not a rejection of Trump’s policies, which they all broadly endorse. It is a practical argument that he is unlikely to win a general election against President Biden or any other Democrat.

Haley delivered a soft version of that message in Iowa this month.

We have to elect someone who can win the general election, she told voters in Des Moines. That calls for a new generation leader. That requires leaving behind the baggage, drama and status quo of the past.

Christie has typically been more belligerent.

Trump has failed us as president, he told voters in New Hampshire last week. Joe Biden is a product of Trump’s failures.

Most other potential candidates, including DeSantis, have avoided directly criticizing Trump.

Of course, it is much too early to predict the outcome. The first real game, the Iowa caucus

It

is more than nine months away

[Feb. 5, 2024]

. the first

GOP

debate, in Milwaukee, is coming in August, followed by a second at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley

[no date set]

.

Most primary voters aren’t really paying attention yet, said Conant, who worked on Florida Senator Marco Rubios’ 2016 presidential campaign. The debates will be the first real test.

Meanwhile, the candidates are shadowboxing in what’s known as the invisible primary: appealing to donors, attempting lines of applause on voters, and defining their still-blurred visions of post-Trump Republicanism.

For DeSantis, that seems to be Trumpism 2.0, with the focus on the culture wars. For Haley, Scott, and Pence, it’s an attempt at a gentle, softer Trumpism. For Christie, Sununu and Hutchinson, it’s more of a return to pre-Trump conservatism.

But all claim that their party will have a brighter future under new management and all refuse to accept the current polls as the last word.

Whatever you think of their policies, at least give them one thing: they’re offering GOP voters an alternative to four more years of the Trump Show.