How much will the minimum wage be? 2024 is a critical month for the minimum wage…

In the coming days the first of the negotiations on the minimum wage will be held, which millions of employees are eagerly awaiting. While the Minister of Labor and Social Security, Vedat Işıkhan, indicated before the Commission for the Determination of the Minimum Wage a one-time increase in the minimum wage, November inflation will be decisive in the negotiations that will begin in December.

HOW MUCH WILL THE MINIMUM WAGE BE?

Inflation was 29.4 percent in the four-month period from July. If November inflation is announced around 3 percent, a similar figure is estimated for December and at least 37.3 percent will be on the agenda for six-month inflation. This means that the minimum wage must be increased to at least 15,700 lira in the new year to compensate for the loss even taking into account inflation alone. Therefore, since the inflation calculation will be taken into account in the table, the minimum wage negotiation is expected to start from at least 15,700 lira.

AN ELECTORAL SURPRISE MAY COME DUE TO THE MINIMUM WAGE

Although the minimum wage is discussed at the negotiating table, the final decision is made by President Erdoğan. Erdoğan increased the collective bargaining increase for public workers just before the last general election and then made the same promise to public officials. Now, with minimum wage negotiations taking place just before local elections, it is claimed that the labor side has a big advantage at the table and it will not be a surprise if the rate of increase is determined to be around 50 percent. If this increase occurs, the new minimum wage will be 17 thousand 103 TL.

SINGLE SIGN OF INCREASE FOR THE MINIMUM WAGE IN 2024

After Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek, in his statements in September and October, pointed to high salary increases as a reason for high inflation and said that salaries should be increased according to expected inflation, not the past inflation, a notable statement The explanation was given by the Minister of Labor and Social Security, Vedat Işıkhan.

When asked by journalists after the cabinet meeting about the minimum wage, Işıkhan said: “As in July, the principle is not to be overwhelmed by inflation. As you know, the minimum wage was always once a year. “We’re still working on a single increase.” he replied he.

HOW MUCH IS THE EXPECTED INFLATION?

The Central Bank (CBRT) announced that the inflation expectation is 65 percent by the end of 2023 and 36 percent by the end of 2024. The PMP also included an inflation expectation of 65 percent by the end of 2023 and 33 percent by the end of 2024.

CBRT expectations are that headline inflation will peak at 75 percent in May 2024 and cumulative inflation will be about 24 percent in the first six months of the year.

Unless there is an interim increase in mid-2024, there will be a serious loss in the purchasing power of my minimum wage.

THE INCREASE TO THE MINIMUM WAGE WAS FOUND

Labor economics professor Aziz Çelik evaluated the discussions on the minimum wage on sozcu.com.tr.

Çelik noted that 30 percent of the 34 percent increase in the minimum wage in July was eliminated with four-month inflation and emphasized that it would not be possible to take into account the expected inflation of the minimum wage when increasing the pensions of retirees and civil servants according to past inflation.

Çelik said that a regulation should be made on the minimum wage that takes into account past inflation, economic growth and living conditions, and also pointed out that official inflation does not fully reflect the loss of wages.

HUNGER LIMIT EXCEEDED THE MINIMUM WAGE

The Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (TÜRK-İŞ) announced data on hunger and poverty lines for November 2023.

According to TÜRK-İŞ research results from November 2023, the monthly food expenditure (hunger limit) that a family of four living in Ankara must make to have a healthy, balanced and adequate diet has increased to 14 one thousand 25 TL. .

The total amount of spending on food and other mandatory monthly expenses for clothing, housing (rent, electricity, water, fuel), transportation, education, health and similar needs increased to 45 thousand 686.81 TL (poverty limit).

The ‘cost of living’ for a single employee increased to 18,239 TL per month.

Last month, the hunger line was announced at 13,684 TL, while the poverty line was announced at 44,573.3 TL. The ‘cost of living’ for a single employee was 17,336.25 TL per month.

FOOD INFLATION IN 10 MONTHS IS 72.50 PERCENT

According to TÜRK-İŞ data, “kitchen inflation” increased by 2.49 percent in November 2023 compared to the previous month. The percentage change since the beginning of the year was determined to be 72.50 percent.

While the rate of change in the trailing twelve months was 80.12 percent, the rate of change based on twelve-month averages was calculated at 86.52 percent.