International Energy Agency Natural Gas Price and Supply Warning
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global gas demand growth will slow in the coming years.
According to the IEA’s 2023 Medium-Term Gas Market report, global gas demand growth is estimated to decline from an average of 2.5 percent in the period 2017-2021 to 1.6 percent. percent in the period 2022-2026.
The strong growth seen in the period 2011-2021 is expected to weaken in gas markets, which have entered a new era following the war started by Russia in Ukraine, and demand is expected to decline, especially in Australia, Japan , Korea, New Zealand and Singapore, as well as Europe and North America.
Conversion to renewable energy sources and advances in energy efficiency are effective in slowing demand in these markets.
According to the report, although there is a decrease in natural gas prices this year, uncertainty and risks remain.
‘LNG INSTALLATIONS WILL PARTIALLY RELIEVE THE SUPPLY CONQUEST’
Asia, the Middle East and Africa are expected to be the markets where gas demand growth will be concentrated. China is expected to account for half of the projected increase in global gas demand over the period 2022-2026.
While supply congestion in global gas markets is estimated to be partially alleviated with liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities coming online around the world in 2025-2026, global LNG capacity is estimated to grow by 25 percent in the period 2022-2026.
During this period, the US is expected to consolidate its position as the world’s largest LNG exporter with new facilities.
GASOLINE PRICES WARNING AS WINTER APPROACHES
On the other hand, while supply constraints continue and LNG supply, especially in Europe, is insufficient to make up for the shortfall caused by Russian gas, the risk of price volatility in the event of a harsh winter period is causing concern.
In his assessment of the report, IEA Director of Security and Energy Markets Keisuke Sadamori stated that global gas markets have entered a new era, saying: “The characteristics of this new era with more uncertainties are a slowdown in demand growth and high volatility. “We may see a peak in global gas demand by 2030,” he said.
Noting that gas demand will follow a different course in developed and developing countries, Sadamori added that they expect significant growth in global LNG capacity in a few years and this will help ease the supply squeeze. (AA)