While a negative trend was seen in global markets as data announced in the US indicated that the strong stance in the labor market continues, raising concerns that the US Federal Reserve (Fed ) continue with its restrictive monetary policy for a long time, today’s report Eyes turned to the intense data agenda.

According to data announced yesterday in the US, the number of vacant positions at JOLTS exceeded market expectations by increasing by 690 thousand to 9 million 610 thousand in August compared to the previous month.

Analysts said the increase in the number of available jobs, a measure of labor demand, indicates that the strong stance in the labor market continues despite the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy.

VOLATILITY MAY INCREASE IN THE MARKETS

Analysts said that the ADP non-farm employment data to be announced today in the country may increase volatility in the markets and stated that statements by Federal Reserve officials are also being followed.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the bank should keep interest rates high “for a long time” and that he plans to cut interest rates in 2024.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said inflation has eased in the near term amid an extremely strong labor market and that she is “very optimistic” about the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Stating that high long-term interest rates may pose a threat, Yellen said: “Our forecast assumes that interest rates will rise towards more normal levels, but especially in recent months, we see a very significant increase not only in the 10-year bonds.” nominal interest rates, but also in real interest rates.” he said.

Following these developments, 10-year bond yields, which continued to rise with accelerated sales of US Treasuries, rose to 4.85 percent, reaching their highest level since August 2007.

STRONG INCREASE IN US BOND RATES

Analysts said sharp increases in US Treasury yields increased selling pressure on global stock markets and reminded that high bond interest rates could slow the US economy. USA and this would affect the global economy.

While the dollar index, which is at its highest in the last year, stands at 107.1, the price of an ounce of gold continues at its lowest levels in the last 6 months, remaining above $1,820.

Yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq index lost 1.87 percent, the Dow Jones index lost 1.29 percent and the S&P 500 index lost 1.36 percent. US index futures contracts started the new day with a negative trend.

NEGATIVE COURSE IN EUROPEAN CHANGES

Yesterday a negative trend was also observed in the European stock markets.

While growing concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at higher levels for longer than expected increase selling pressure in stock markets, data from the services sector and the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index ( PMI) that will be announced today throughout the region, as well as the speech by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, became the focus of investors.

While verbal guidance from ECB members is also being followed, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said last week it was pleasing to see eurozone inflation fall to its lowest level in two years in September, but that new progress must be monitored.

On the other hand, the euro/dollar parity is at its lowest level since December 2022 at 1.0470.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in England decreased by 0.54 percent, the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 1.01 percent, the MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 1.32 percent and the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 1.06 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a negative trend.

HIGH INTEREST EXPECTATIONS NEGATIVELY AFFECTED ASIA

A negative trend was also highlighted in Asian markets.

Rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for a long time and the rapid rise in US Treasury yields also increased selling pressure on Asian stock markets.

Yesterday, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market and emphasized that stability is important and that rapid movements are not desired.

After rising to 150.2 yesterday and testing last year’s high, the dollar/yen parity eased from this level and was down about 1.9 percent to 147.4. The parity closed the day at 149, decreasing 0.6 compared to its previous close.

It should be noted that the Japanese Finance Minister, Suzuki, insistently did not respond to the question of whether there was any intervention in said peg movement.

Separately, the World Bank raised its growth expectations for the South Asia region from 5.6 percent to 5.8 percent this year.

Furthermore, according to data announced in Japan, the services PMI exceeded expectations at 53.8.

There were no transactions in Chinese markets due to the holiday.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan declined 1.7 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong declined 0.9 percent, while the Kospi index in South Korea lost 2.3 percent when Operations opened after the holiday.

HIGHEST DAILY CLOSING ON BORSA ISTANBUL

The BIST 100 index of the Istanbul Stock Exchange, which yesterday followed a positive trend in the country, completed the day at 8,513.54 points with a value gain of 0.31 percent, achieving the highest daily close of all time and broke its record high at 8,562.70 points. .

The dollar/TL is trading today at 27.5460 at the interbank market opening, after closing the day at 27.4857 with an increase of 0.1 percent yesterday.

On the other hand, CBRT Chairman Hafize Gaye Erkan, who made a briefing on the activities of the Central Bank in accordance with Article 42 of the Law of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), before the Planning Commission and Budget of the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) said: “The decline in annual inflation we will start to see after May 2024 due to the base effect. “There will be a period of stability in 2025 and we will reduce inflation to single digits in 2026.” said.

Analysts stated that today, the intense data agenda, especially the real effective exchange rate at home, the services sector and the overseas composite PMI, and the ADP non-farm employment in the US, have become in the focus of investors, and from a technical point of view. From his point of view, the resistance is the 8,600 and 8,700 levels of the BIST 100 index. He noted that 8,400 and 8,300 points are in a support position.

The data to follow in the markets today are the following:

10.55 Germany, Services PMI and September Composite

11.00 Composite PMI, services and euro zone for September

11.30 UK PMI, Services and September Composite

12.00 Euro Zone, PPI and retail sales in August

14.30 Türkiye, September real effective exchange rate

15.30 USA, September ADP Private Sector Employment

17.00 USA, August factory orders

17:00 US, September services PMI (AA)