World Bank Growth Forecast Decision

The World Bank released the October update of the semi-annual economic outlook for the East Asia and Pacific region.

THE SPEED WILL LOWER IN THE SECOND HALF

In the bank’s outlook statement, it said growth in developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific will remain strong at 5 percent in 2023, but will slow in the second half of the year, and that Growth is estimated to be 4.5 percent in 2024.

The statement noted that although this year’s regional growth is higher than the average growth forecast for other emerging markets and economies, it is lower than the previous forecast, and that growth among Pacific island countries is expected to be 5.2 percent.

GROWTH IN CHINA WILL BE 5.1

The statement said growth in China will be 5.1 percent in 2023, and growth in the region excluding China will remain at 4.6 percent.

The statement noted that improving external conditions will help growth in the rest of the region next year, and that domestic challenges such as the fading recovery resulting from the ongoing reopening of the economy in China, rising debts and the weakness of the real estate sector. sector will suppress the country’s growth and reduce growth to 4.4 percent in 2024. It was stated that it would slow down the

ATTENTION WAS DRAWN TO THE SERVICES SECTOR

The statement noted that intensifying geopolitical tensions and the possibility of natural disasters, including extreme weather events, pose negative risks to the region’s economic prospects.

The statement highlighted that the services sector can play an increasingly important role in leading development in a region known for its manufacturing-oriented growth, and that this sector has become the main player contributing to the increase of total labor productivity in the last 10 years. .

The statement stated that service exports in the region increased faster than goods exports, and that the increase in foreign direct investment in the services sector exceeded growth in the manufacturing sector by 5 times in China, Indonesia , Malaysia and the Philippines. and Thailand.

In her assessment of the issue, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Vice President Manuela Ferro emphasized that the East Asia and Pacific region remains one of the most dynamic and fastest growing regions in the world, even if growth slows down.

In its report released at the end of March, the bank predicted that the East Asia and Pacific region’s economy would grow by 5.1 percent this year.

The World Bank, which announced its growth expectations for the region next year at 4.8 percent in its March report, had forecast that China would grow 5.1 percent this year and 4.8 percent next year. next. (AA)