The real sector confidence index decreased in September

The Central Bank (CBRT) announced economic trend statistics and real sector confidence index data for September 2023.

Thus, in September 2023, the seasonally adjusted real sector confidence index (RKGE-MA) decreased 0.6 points compared to the previous month and stood at 104.4.

When the diffusion rates of the survey questions that make up the index are examined, the overall situation
While assessments on the course of events, total employment in the next three months, the current stock of finished products and expenditure on fixed capital investment affect the index in an upward direction, assessments on the current total amount of orders, the amount of export orders in the next three months, The total amount of orders in the last three months and the production volume in the next three months affected the index in a downward direction.

The non-seasonally adjusted real sector confidence index (RKGE) decreased 0.6 points compared to the previous month and stood at 104.4.

QUARTERLY EVALUATIONS

In the evaluations of the last three months, it was observed that the trend in favor of those who reported an increase in the volume of production and the amount of orders for the domestic market weakened compared to the previous month, while the trend towards favor of those who reported an increase in export orders, a reinforced amount compared to the previous month.

In the evaluations of the next three months, it was observed that the trend in favor of those who expected an increase in the volume of production, the amount of export orders and the amount of orders from the domestic market in the previous month has weakened. It was noted that upward expectations regarding fixed capital investment expenditure in the next twelve months and employment in the next three months have strengthened compared to the previous month.

PRODUCER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DECREASE

It was observed that the trend weakened in favor of those who expected an increase in average unit costs in the next three months and those who reported an increase in the last three months. It was observed that bullish expectations about the sales price in the next three months also weakened.

At the end of the next twelve months, the annual PPI expectation decreased by 0.6 points compared to the previous month, reaching 63.7 percent.

The rate of those who said they were more optimistic about the overall trend of their industry compared to the previous month increased to 7.3 percent, the rate of those who said it remained the same increased to 78.5 percent, while the rate of those who stated that it remained the same increased to 78.5 percent, while those who declared themselves to be more pessimistic decreased to 14.2 percent.