Negative course in global markets

Despite strengthening predictions in global markets that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike is coming to an end, negative data signals on the Chinese economy continued on a negative path , while all eyes turned to Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data to be announced worldwide today.

While concerns about inflation affecting global asset prices are gradually easing, investors’ attention is on whether PMI data, which track countries’ economic activity, will signal the possibility of a recession.

FED FORECASTS

Analysts said recently released US data has eased pressure on the Federal Reserve as it fights inflation, adding that it strengthened expectations that the Bank will not raise interest rates for the rest of the year.

In the focus of investors are factory order data, which is important to shed light on the future performance of the industrial sector, which today occupies an important place in the country’s economy.

On the other hand, the data published today in China, where a series of incentives have been announced to reactivate the economy for a while, indicate that the recovery of the country’s economy has lost momentum. In the country, risk appetite in global markets declined after the Caixin Services Sector PMI fell below expectations at 51.8 and the Composite PMI declined to 51.7 compared to the previous month. .

GOLD AND OIL

As a result of this evolution, the price of an ounce of gold, which yesterday closed the day at 1,938.5 dollars with a decrease of 0.1 percent, is currently trading just above the previous closing price.

On the energy side, the price of a barrel of Brent oil, which ended the day with an increase of 0.1 percent to 88.8 dollars, maintained its upward trend yesterday for the fifth consecutive day, due to concerns that Saudi Saudi and Russia continue to supply. The October cuts are the highest since November 2022. He made the daily close. Brent oil started the new day on a flat course.

The markets, which were closed yesterday due to a US holiday, will be traded today. US index futures contracts started the new day lower.

EUROPEAN MARKETS

Although a negative course is observed in the European stock markets, the data from the PMI and the Producer Price Index (PPI) that will be released today throughout the region, as well as the speech by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB ), Christine Lagarde, who will continue today, placed the focus of investors.

Speaking yesterday at the seminar organized by the European Center for Economics and Finance in London, Lagarde pointed out that it is very important not only to take decisive action to reduce inflation, but also to communicate effectively to ensure that medium-term inflation expectations are met. keep. stable throughout the process.

Lagarde stressed that it is extremely important for central banks to establish effective communication in order to achieve their inflation targets.

Analysts said the signals to be received from Lagarde’s speeches may provide clues as to how the ECB will proceed in the coming period.

While the DAX 40 index fell 0.10 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index 0.24 percent in France and the FTSE 100 index 0.16 percent in the United Kingdom, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy it followed a horizontal trajectory. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a negative trend.

ASIAN MARKETS

Asian markets turned negative after data from China missed expectations.

According to data announced in the country on Friday, although the Caixin Manufacturing PMI beat expectations with 51.0 increased confidence in economic activity, the Caixin Service Sector PMI announced today came in below projections at 51.8 and the composite PMI declined from the previous month at 51. The decline to 0.7 raised concerns about the country’s economy.

Analysts stressed that the data released in China indicates that the recovery of the country’s economy remains fragile.

According to data released in Japan, the service sector PMI came in at 54.3, in line with expectations.

On the other hand, the Central Bank of Australia, one of the regional central banks, announced that it left the policy rate constant at 4.10 percent.

Near the close, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index lost 0.1 percent, China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.5 percent and the South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.1 percent.

ISTANBUL BORSA BREATHE RECORD

Yesterday, following an upward trend in the domestic market, the BIST 100 index on the Istanbul Stock Exchange completed the day at 8,141.33 points with a value gain of 1.06%, while achieving the highest daily close of all time, reaching its highest record level of 8,238.89 points.

The dollar/TL is trading today at 26.7850 at the opening of the interbank market, after closing yesterday at 26.7602 with an increase of 0.1 percent.

On the other hand, yesterday the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) decided to remove the credit restriction on companies that have corrected irregularities related to missing documents or independent audit statements. Under the decision, companies unable to borrow because of their currency position will be able to borrow if they commit to reducing their currency position below the limit.

Analysts said they will follow the country’s real effective exchange rate, the service sector and composite PMI to be announced abroad, the eurozone PPI and US factory orders, technically 8,200 and 8,300. on the BIST 100 index. that resistance level, 8 thousand 100 and 8 thousand points are in support position.

The data to follow in the markets today are the following:

10.55 Germany, service sector and composite PMI for August

11.00 Eurozone, services sector for August and composite PMI

11.30 United Kingdom, services sector for August and composite PMI

12.00 Euro Zone, PPI for July

14:30 Türkiye, August real effective exchange rate

1700 US July Factory Orders (YY)