Confidence in the real sector fell in August

In August 2023, the seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RKGE-MA) decreased 0.3 points compared to the previous month and decreased to 104.6.

When examining the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index, it is seen that while the total amount of orders in the last three months, the total employment in the next three months and the evaluations of the expenses of investment in fixed capital affect the index. In the upward direction, the amount of export orders in the next three months, the volume of production in the next three months, the general trend, and current assessments on the stocks of finished goods affected the index in the downward direction.

Assessments on the current total amount of the order were at the level of the previous month.

The real sector confidence index (ICC), which is not seasonally adjusted, fell 1.8 points compared to the previous month and stood at 105.0.

In the evaluations of the last three months, it was observed that the trend in favor of those who reported an increase in their production volume, number of orders in the domestic market and volume of export orders strengthened compared to the previous month.

It noted that assessments that current total orders are below seasonal normals were unchanged from the previous month, and assessments that current stocks of finished goods are above seasonal normals strengthened compared to The last month.

In the evaluations of the next three months, it was observed that the trend in favor of those who expected an increase in the volume of production, the amount of export orders and the amount of orders from the domestic market in the previous month weakened.

It was observed that expectations of an increase in fixed capital investment expenditures in the next twelve months strengthened compared to the previous month, while expectations of an increase in employment in the next three months weakened.

THE INFLATION EXPECTATION OF MANUFACTURERS IS HIGH

It was observed that the trend strengthened in favor of those who expected an increase in average unit costs in the next three months and those who reported an increase in the last three months. On the other hand, it was observed that the expectations of an increase in the sale price in the next three months weakened. At the end of the next twelve months, the annual producer inflation expectation (IPP) increased by 4.7 points compared to the previous month and reached 64.3 percent.

Compared with the previous month, the rate of those who declared they were more optimistic about the general direction of their industry decreased to 5.9 percent.

The results of the August 2023 Business Trends Survey were evaluated by weighting and aggregating responses from 1,734 workplaces operating in the manufacturing industry.