When will inflation be announced? What is the inflation expectation in June?

Inflation rose just 0.04% with Turkstat’s zero-price application after the government capped household natural gas use in May, causing annual inflation to fall by more than four percentage points to 39 .59% After Tayyip Erdoğan won the presidential election, the TL has lost more than 28% of its value since the beginning of the year, mainly after the elections, as the CBRT stopped using its reserves for lower exchange rates.

WHEN AND AT WHAT TIME WILL THE INFLATION RATE BE ANNOUNCED?

The inflation rate will be released on Wednesday, July 5 at 10:00 am.

HOW MUCH IS THE INFLATION RATE EXPECTED?

While monthly CPI estimates from 11 economists polled by Reuters were in the range of 2.50% to 5.50% increase, annual forecasts edged out between 36.30% and 40.30%.

The CPI is expected to rise 4.84% per month in June and decline to 39.5% per year with limited decline.

Inflation rose just 0.04% with Turkstat’s zero-price application after the government capped household natural gas use in May, causing annual inflation to fall by more than four percentage points to 39 .59% Core inflation “C”, which does not include energy prices, increased 4.25% monthly in May and amounted to 46.62% annual. Economists interpret the steps taken by economic officials after Erdogan’s re-election as Ankara’s return to orthodox economic policies. The strongest sign of this is seen as the Central Bank’s policy rate hike by 650 basis points to 15% last week. While noting that indicators point to an increase in the underlying trend of inflation, the CBRT said that the tight monetary policy will be gradually strengthened. However, investors are not fully convinced as the tightening is below market expectations. Some analysts argue that the CBRT, which lost its independence in recent years under Erdogan’s presidency, still has limited room for manoeuvre. Despite CBRT interventions in recent years, TL, which has lost more than 80% of its value since 2018, is expected to continue depreciating this year as well. Economists predict that the depreciation in TL will continue to increase inflation by increasing prices with the pass-through effect. In the Reuters poll, the median for year-end inflation forecast is 51.50%, while forecasts are in the range of 38.60% to 55.30%. After Erdogan’s calls for low interest rates despite rising inflation, the start of CBRT cuts at the end of 2021 led to a currency crisis. As a result, inflation began to decline after hitting a 24-year high of 85.51% in October. Reuters