The model developed by Arcadis shows how water spreads and what the current speeds are. This enabled the engineering firm to predict the extent of the disaster at an early stage. ‘The peculiarity is that we have used a technology that was not there before. It’s a model you can set up in half a day so you can use the results immediately during this water disaster.’
A thousand laptops
Arcadis is working on the development together with the Dutch technology company Tygron, which uses big data and supercomputers: an unimaginable abundance of (real-time) data that can be processed and fed back at the speed of light. According to Agerdijk, this is the equivalent of a model run “by a thousand laptops at once”.
Dam breach was investigated using this toolset in conjunction with water expertise from Arcadis. With remarkable results. For example, the model “saw” that the hole in the dam was initially 200 meters wide. Due to the enormous water pressure, this quickly became a 550m breach. But the model did not notice this at first. The researchers then used social media and direct feedback from experts in Ukraine to improve the model in real time.
Iterative
“So we were able to iteratively improve the model with the feedback we received via social media.” Due to the speed of the model, people in the disaster area could be evacuated because the water level and current speed in a given river basin could be predicted with certainty.
In addition to speed and accuracy, level of detail is also a notable feature of the model. According to Agerdijk, it is possible to analyze at street level. “You can see what the flow rate is and how much salt it is in your house.” And this is indispensable knowledge for emergency services who have to coordinate evacuation routes. “So they can see which roads are not passable or which roads will be passable again when.”
Cholera
The model not only predicts the flow of water during the disaster, but also provides insight into the depth of the current ecological crisis. After all, the model also sees when the water flows out again and where it stays. Combined with the fact that the water has been in contact with the sewers (and also: where), it can also help predict where a disease like cholera is likely to emerge.