While yesterday the Dutch economy was still expected to grow in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, there is actually a contraction of 0.7 percent. A heavy blow, according to macroeconomist Edin Mujagic.
He points out that there is no slight deterioration in any way, as he concludes from various reactions. “The last time the Dutch economy contracted fastest on a quarterly basis was in early 2020,” he says. “And if you forget that for a moment — because it was quite an exception — the next big quarterly decline was in 2012. This is an exceptional situation.”
“This is an exceptional situation”
Mujagic therefore believes that the situation should not be minimized. CBS says that while the situation is disappointing, only what is happening to the next minus should be given serious consideration. ‘If we continue like this, that minus will also come’, Mujagic is adamant.
Two factors
And this is due to two factors, thinks Mujagic. On the one hand, fewer goods and services are being exported, which is exactly what we should be talking about. According to Mujagic, it becomes painfully clear how dependent the Netherlands actually is on the rest of the world. “There has been growth in the countries around us, with the exceptions of Germany – which has stagnated as our largest sales market – and the UK, where the economy grew by 0.1 percent.” .
Stagnation
Furthermore, Dutch consumption has stagnated, although it is of crucial importance, according to Mujagic. While you don’t find stagnation particularly strange, after all, inflation remains high, with the result that people remain morose. “And if you look ahead, inflation will also remain high,” Mujagic said. “Wage increases are at best equal to that inflation and house prices are starting to fall in the Netherlands.”
And that decline in particular is often bad news for the general mood in the Netherlands, Mujagic knows. He would therefore not be surprised if the negative from the first quarter continued into the second quarter.
Source: BNR
Andrew Dwight is an author and economy journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. He has a deep understanding of financial markets and a passion for analyzing economic trends and news. With a talent for breaking down complex economic concepts into easily understandable terms, Andrew has become a respected voice in the field of economics journalism.
