‘The industry has actually done very well since the reopening of the economy and the whole economy has benefited. Then this contraction is not good.’ This shrinkage is also not new. “It hasn’t been good for months,” says De Jong. It is the third consecutive month that the annual production is lower than the previous year. No good news.’
Transportation is going well
Good results are recorded in the transport sector. “Things didn’t go well there for a while, so that was allowed too.” There is 13 percent production growth over a year ago. Production in the chemical industry, on the other hand, is 17% lower than last year. “Logically, because this is an energy-intensive industry,” says De Jong. And even in the machine industry, “last year’s star”, production is declining.
‘It is the third consecutive month that the annual production is lower than the previous year. No good news’
The fall in energy prices is therefore not yet leading to a significant recovery in these sectors. It’s disappointing, thinks De Jong. “Let’s hope we don’t suffer a permanent loss there.”
According to De Jong, a lot also has to do with reducing demand from a number of sectors such as chemicals, rubber and plastics. “A worldwide phenomenon.” Furthermore, stockpiling also ensures lower production.
Germany
The Dutch economy has traditionally been very much in step with Germany, but that changed in 2018. ‘From then on, our industry did much better than Germany’s.’ According to De Jong, this has to do with the composition of German industry. There the emphasis is mainly on the automotive sector, and there have been big problems there. While Dutch industry is more focused on machine building, high tech and semiconductors. “But now you see production also increasing in Germany, things are going better than here.”
CBS
Tomorrow Statistics Netherlands will publish new data on the Dutch economy. De Jong expects a figure close to zero. Perhaps a small plus, but it can also be a small minus.’ In the fourth quarter of last year, the Dutch economy grew unexpectedly strong, by 0.6%. However, De Jong is holding his breath over this year’s first quarter results. “You often see a positive surprise alternate with a lower grade.”
The economist mainly sees a sharp contraction in industrial production in the first quarter. De Jong also expects consumer spending to match, along with weak business investment and a small increase in foreign trade. ‘Is this good or bad? I’d say the probability of a slightly negative number is somewhat greater than the probability of a slightly positive number,” he says.