Markets can only last until May 14

TürkiyeThere are only 7 days left for the elections that will determine the fate of . Economic management, especially since February, is using all the energy it has left to curb the exchange rate with the sale of reserves and limit the fall of the stock market with public support.

30 PERCENT IS ENOUGH

Boğaziçi University Faculty of Economics, Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Elgin stated that the business in the money markets moves towards a critical point every day, and argued that the foreign exchange and stock markets can only last until May 14, and that the possibility of a possible second round is the worst case scenario. What can happen to the economy? teacher. Ceyhun Elgin told SÖZCÜ what is expected in the Turkish economy in two different scenarios, including the continuation of the current government and the victory of the opposition. Stating that the growth of the economic crisis can be prevented by economic policy management with high international credibility, Elgin said that if the financial and monetary policy is brought to a rational point, the amount of foreign capital will increase and the incoming capital will give a Kind of a respite from the new economic management. He said he would create a reception area. Elgin noted that with the transition to rational monetary policy, an increase in interest rates will be required, but this crisis can be overcome with an interest rate below the expected inflation rate of 35 to 40 percent. Pointing out that the interest rate is currently around 30 percent in the markets, Elgin pointed out that it would be enough to increase the policy rate, which was reduced to 8.5 percent by the Central Bank, at market rates, and that it would not it would be a problem if inflation stayed a bit in the negative zone.

The weight of the crisis should not fall on society

Referring to opposition promises signaling an expansionary fiscal policy, Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Elgin said: “There are promises like tea, hazelnut purchase prices, civil servant salaries. There is scope in terms of the current public budget for this to happen. In addition, serious expenses derived from guarantees such as patients and bridge crossings can also be returned.
It should also be against some recession that will be created by an increase in interest rates that converges with inflation. All this must happen so as not to put the burden of economic waste on society. The person responsible for the crisis is not the minimum wage, nor the worker nor the civil servant, ”he said.

They are required to complete capital control.

■ Prof.. Dr Ceyhun Elgin said that although there is not yet full capital control, this point is being made and that if the current government wins the election, it will have to switch to full capital control at some point. “Because the country cannot generate foreign currency,” Elgin said, “the president’s rhetoric does not point to a return to current policies. Therefore, under these conditions, they can only prevent an approaching balance of payments crisis with capital controls. This is not the Türkiye we dream of,” he said. Elgin said current capital restrictions and practices, such as protected currency deposits, cannot be lifted overnight, but a normalization may occur towards the end of the year.